Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory while the stock markets are mixed. The Dow is currently down 37 points and the Nasdaq has gained 8 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, but due to weakness late Friday, we may see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Friday’s early pricing.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for today or tomorrow that is likely to affect mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us the release of only two pieces of monthly economic data in addition to two Treasury auctions. The economic data is set for late in the week and the Treasury auctions will take place mid-week.
In the absence of anything on the schedule today or tomorrow, look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing until we get to mid-week. As long as no major news or events transpire, such as developments in Ukraine, stock strength will probably lead to bond weakness and higher mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes fall from current levels, bond prices should rise, pushing mortgage rates lower the first couple days.
Overall, Friday is the best candidate to be most important day with all of the week’s economic data scheduled, but we could see movement in rates multiple days. The Treasury auctions Wednesday and Thursday raise the possibility of afternoon volatility in the middle days. With the FOMC meeting, projections and press conference looming next week, any surprises this week could affect theories about what the Fed will say following that meeting.