Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite slightly stronger than expected economic data. The major stock indexes are showing early weakness with the Dow down 56 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (2.49%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
August’s Personal Income and Outlays report was released early this morning, revealing a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.5% increase in spending. The income reading pegged forecasts but the spending exceeding expectations by 0.1%. That makes the data slightly negative for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, it has had only a minimal impact on this morning’s mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow also has one report to be concerned with. The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This report gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a slight decline in confidence from last month’s reading, indicating that consumers were a little less optimistic about their own financial situations than last month. This means they are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. That is favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 92.0, down from August’s 92.4 reading. The smaller the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Overall, I suspect we will see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage rates this week, but the busiest days will probably be the latter part of the week. Labeling Wednesday and Friday as the most important days is easy due to the significance of the economic reports scheduled those days. The calmest day for mortgage rates will likely be Thursday but major moves in the stock markets could lead to movement in rates any day. With such important data and a relatively full calendar, it would be prudent to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.