Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due partly to stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are starting the week mixed with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.36%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates approximately .125 of a discount point higher than Friday’s morning pricing.
The first release of the week was posted at 10:00 AM ET when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index for October. It came in at 59.0, exceeding forecasts of 56.2 and was an increase from September’s 56.6. This means that surveyed manufacturers were more optimistic about business conditions last month than many had thought, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
September’s Factory Orders report will be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show a 0.5% decline in new orders from August’s level. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while an unexpected rise would be bad news and could push rates slightly higher tomorrow morning since it would indicate economic strength. It is worth noting though, that this report is not considered to be highly important to mortgage rates.
Overall, the single most important day of the week is Friday with the almighty monthly Employment report being posted. Tomorrow will probably be the calmest day unless something unexpected happens. We have relevant data set for release each day of the week and stocks have been volatile recently, so this leads me to believe that we will see another active week for mortgage rates. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating a rate and closing in the near future.