Monday’s bond market has opened flat with nothing of importance scheduled for today. The major stock indexes are following suit with the Dow up 4 points and the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.21%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s levels.
There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release today, so unless stocks make a big move we can expect the bond market and mortgage pricing to remain near current levels. The rest of the week has six economic reports set for release, including two that are considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates. Some of this data will also influence the Fed’s monetary policy decision later this month, raising the potential of a great deal of volatility in the markets and mortgage rates.
The first report will be released late tomorrow morning. November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a small increase in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 50.1. A weaker reading than the expected 50.4 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially if it falls below 50.0. A reading below that threshold means that more surveyed business executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. A sub-50 reading is considered a recessionary sign. The lower the reading the better the news it is for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes broader economic growth less likely.
Overall, look for Friday to be the most active day of the week due to the almighty monthly Employment report being released but we could see noticeable movement in rates tomorrow also. With so much on tap this week, there is plenty of opportunity to see large swings in the major market indexes and mortgage rates multiple days. Accordingly, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.