Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks starting the week with sizable losses. The Dow is currently down 175 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 51 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32 (2.34%), but due to weakness late Friday we will likely see little change in this morning’s rates if comparing to Friday’s morning pricing.
Today’s only relevant economic data was May’s Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It showed a 0.2% decline in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, falling short of the 0.3% increase that was expected. This is a sign of manufacturing weakness, making the data good news for the bond and mortgage markets.
May’s Housing Starts will be posted at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This data tracks construction starts of new home projects. It is one of the month’s least important reports and likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show that starts of new homes fell last month, indicating softness in the housing sector. That is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. However, this data is not important enough to cause a noticeable change in mortgage rates unless there is a wide variance between forecasts and the actual results.
Overall, Wednesday is easily the best candidate as most active day for mortgage rates with the FOMC statement, Fed economic projections and press conference with Chairperson Yellen. We may also see a fair amount of movement in rates Thursday since Wednesday’s Fed schedule are afternoon events and we will get a key inflation reading early Thursday morning. Friday looks to be the least important day unless something unexpected happens. For the week, I would be surprised if we did not see plenty of movement in rates. Please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate as the markets can become extremely volatile at any time.