Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory even though stocks are a little weaker and there was no surprise in today’s only economic data. The Dow and Nasdaq are both showing minor losses of 11 and 9 points respectively. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.17%), but due to some strength late yesterday we should see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates is comparing to Monday’s morning pricing.
June’s Factory Orders report was posted late this morning by the Commerce Department. It showed a 1.8% increase in new orders at U.S. factories for both durable and non-durable goods. That pegged forecasts, indicating gains in the manufacturing sector but at a pace that was expected. Therefore, we can consider the data neutral for the bond and mortgage markets.
Tomorrow’s only relevant report is July’s ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs in the company’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week’s calendar. Forecasts show an increase of 220,000 new payrolls. The lower the number, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.
We need to keep an eye on the debt and financial crisis in Puerto Rico. It will be interesting to see just how much of an impact it will have on our markets and mortgage rates. Greece’s recent issue had a heavy influence here but they were tied to the Euro zone. We will know in the very near future how that situation will play out and if it will affect our mortgage rates.
Thursday only has the weekly unemployment update scheduled for release, but it is the last day before the almighty monthly Employment report. Therefore, we should expect to see some movement as investors prepare for that key economic release.