Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as stocks open the week in selling mode. The major stock indexes are showing sizable losses during early trading, pushing the Dow lower by 170 points and the Nasdaq down 43 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (2.14%), but due to weakness in trading late Friday, this morning’s mortgage rates should remain close to Friday’s early pricing.
There is nothing of importance set for release today, but the rest of the week brings us the release of six reports that may influence mortgage rates. Two of those six are considered to be highly important to the markets. Adding to the significance of these reports is the fact that they will be the last versions before the FOMC meeting next month that some believe may bring the Fed’s first rate hike since the financial crisis and recession.
The first release of the week will come from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who will post their manufacturing index for August at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and is expected to show a reading of 52.6, which would be a slight decline from July’s reading of 52.7. A reading below 50 is considered a recessionary sign because it means that more surveyed manufacturers felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. A larger decline in the index would likely lead to an improvement in mortgage rates tomorrow as it would hint at manufacturing sector weakness.
Overall, we will probably see noticeable movement in rates several days this week. The most active day will likely be Friday due to the significance of the monthly Employment report, but tomorrow’s ISM report is also a key report for mortgage rates. Wednesday has a full day of releases, so we need to be careful with it too. Please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate as we should see a pretty volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets.