Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory to start the week off with an improvement in rates. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (2.15%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point from Friday’s morning pricing.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, so I would not be surprised to see a fairly calm day. The rest of the week brings us four pieces of monthly economic data with one being considered highly important. In addition to the economic data, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will also be posted mid-week.
The first piece of data will be July’s Housing Starts is the first at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, which will give us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. It usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Tomorrow’s release is expected to show an increase in construction starts of new homes. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market, as it would indicate a weaker than expected housing sector.
Overall, Wednesday is likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates with the CPI and FOMC minutes scheduled while Friday appears to be the best candidate for least important. Stocks will probably be a contributing factor to bond movement several days with little key economic data scheduled this week. I believe bond yields are going to be making a move one direction or another very soon. Unfortunately, it is my opinion that the risk of moving higher outweighs the potential gains of floating for a lower rate. Therefore, I would still proceed cautiously if floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.