Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks having a surprisingly subdued open, leaving little to drive trading. The major stock indexes are showing modest gains with the Dow up 15 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (1.85%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates very close to Friday’s levels.
There was nothing of importance posted this morning. I was expecting a much different open for stocks since the equity markets were closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday. The bond market was open until Noon ET, so it had a chance to react to March’s Employment report. The quiet morning in stocks is a bit confusing, but it has helped preserve Friday’s improvement in mortgage rates.
This week has little in terms of economic reports scheduled that are expected to influence mortgage rates. We do have two Treasury auctions and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting mid-week that have the potential to affect rates. Corporate earnings season also kicks off this week, which could be instrumental in driving stock prices significantly higher or lower. Since stock movement often affects bond trading, we will also be watching the earnings releases from some of the bigger names and bellwethers to help gauge bond direction and mortgage rate movement.
Overall, look for the most movement in rates the latter part of the week. Wednesday could be the most active day of the week if the FOMC minutes reveal any surprises. Tomorrow appears to be the lightest and will probably be the calmest day for mortgage rates. Look for the stock markets to also influence bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week as traders react to the corporate earnings news. I am expecting it to be a fairly active week for the mortgage market despite the lack of key economic releases, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.