Monday’s bond market has opened flat with stocks starting the week well in positive ground, recovering a good part of Friday’s big sell-off. The Dow is currently up 212 points and the Nasdaq up 40 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from Friday’s close (1.87%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s levels.
There is nothing of importance set for release today that is expected to affect mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, I suspect bonds will follow suit. If stocks extend this morning’s gains, I would not be surprised to see bonds weaken enough to possibly cause an upward revision to mortgage pricing later today.
The rest of the week has only three pieces of economic data scheduled for release that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. All of the week’s events are set to take place the latter days, so we could see the most movement in rates later in the week. We also need to watch stocks since we are still in corporate earnings season as corporate earnings is a direct reflection of economic strength or weakness. With nothing of importance scheduled for tomorrow either, we can look towards stocks to help determine bond and mortgage rate direction until we get to the economic data on Wednesday.
Overall, I believe Friday is the best candidate for most active day due to the importance of the Durable Goods report. However, no day is an obvious choice, so don’t be surprised to see movement in rates multiple days. The calmest day will likely be tomorrow unless something unexpected happens or stocks stage a strong rally or sell-off. Despite the lack of a full agenda this week, it would still be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.