Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates, and Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates:
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory. The stock markets are calm during early trading with the Dow up 2 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The National Association of Realtors gave us this morning’s only relevant economic data with the release September’s Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET. They announced that home resales fell 1.9% last month. The number of sales nearly matched forecasts, but a downward revision to August’s sales means the percentage of the drop was smaller than expected. That makes the data neutral to slightly negative for the bond market and mortgage rates.
There are four more monthly economic reports scheduled for release the rest of the week that may influence mortgage rates. We are also into corporate earnings season, which can heavily influence stock trading and indirectly drive bond trading. If earnings reports start to indicate a general consensus of weaker earnings than what analysts were expecting, stocks should go into selling mode and bonds could benefit as investors seek the safety of government and mortgage bonds.
Tomorrow has the key data of the week with the release of September’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. This report was delayed from the first week of the month during the government shutdown. It is extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets because it will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be key readings of the employment sector and will heavily influence trading and even Fed thinking. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.
If this report gives us weaker than expected readings, bond prices should move higher and we should see lower mortgage rates tomorrow. Although, it is worth noting that the accuracy of the data is likely to be questioned as a result of the shutdown. However, stronger than forecasted readings would be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 7.3%, an increase of 183,000 new jobs from August’s level and a 0.2% increase in earnings.
Overall, tomorrow is the most important day of the week with the almighty Employment report now scheduled to be posted. None of the other data set for release is considered key or market-moving, but most of the reports can still affect mortgage rates if they show a noticeable variance from forecasts. Wednesday should be the calmest day unless something unexpected happens.