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Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates-October 20, 2013

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

This week brings us the release of five economic reports   that may influence mortgage rates, one of which is arguably the single most   important monthly report for the markets. There is data set for release four   of the five days, so we can expect to see movement in rates multiple days   this week. We are also into corporate earnings season, which can heavily   influence stock trading and indirectly bond trading. If earnings reports start   to indicate a general consensus of weaker earnings than analysts were   expecting, stocks should go into selling mode and bonds could benefit as   investors seek the safety of government and mortgage bonds.The National Association of Realtors will start the week’s activities with   the release September’s Existing Home Sales data late tomorrow morning. This   report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit   demand by tracking home resales. I don’t see it having much of an influence   on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from   analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is   expected to show a decline in sales from August to September, meaning the  housing sector softened. That would be favorable news for the bond market   since a weakening housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less  likely and allows bonds to remain appealing to investors.The Labor Department will post September’s Employment report early Tuesday morning,   rescheduled from earlier this month due to the government shutdown. This   extremely important report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of   new payrolls added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings.   These are considered to be key readings of the employment sector and can have   a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond   market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

If this report gives us weaker than expected readings, bond prices should   move higher and we should see lower mortgage rates Tuesday. Although, it is   worth noting that the accuracy of the data is likely to be questioned as a   result of the shutdown. However, stronger than forecasted readings would be   bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to   see the unemployment rate remain at 7.3%, an increase of 183,000 new jobs   from August’s level and a 0.2% increase in earnings.

There is nothing of importance set for release Wednesday and Thursday has   only a minor housing report scheduled. That would be September’s New Home   Sales at 10:00 AM ET. This data covers the small percentage of home sales   that Monday’s Existing Home Sales report didn’t include. It is expected to   show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, but regardless of its   results I am not expecting it to have a significant impact on mortgage rates   Thursday.

Friday has two pieces of economic data that could affect mortgage rates. The   Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September at 8:30 AM   ET. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by   tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are   expected to last three or more years. Analysts are currently calling for an   increase in new orders of approximately 3.5%. If we see a much larger   increase in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. On   the other hand, a significantly weaker than expected reading should be good   news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite   volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast. Therefore, a small   variance from forecasts likely will have little impact on Friday’s bond   trading or mortgage pricing.

The week’s last report comes just before 10:00 AM ET Friday when the   University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this   month. This report is moderately important because it helps us measure   consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers’ willingness to   spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment   situations, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future.   Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any   related data is watch closely. Current forecasts show this index falling from   the preliminary reading of 75.2 to 74.5, meaning confidence was not as strong   this month as previously thought. That would be good news for mortgage rates.

Overall, Tuesday is the most important day of the week with the almighty   Employment report now scheduled. None of the other data set for release is   considered key or market-moving, but most of the reports can still affect   mortgage rates if they show a noticeable variance from forecasts. Wednesday should   be the calmest day unless something unexpected happens. However, stock   movement can drive bond trading and impact mortgage rates any day, so please   proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate. Maintaining contact   with your mortgage professional would be prudent this week.