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Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for the extremely busy week. The stock markets are contributing to the soft opening in bonds with sizable gains in the major stock indexes. The Dow is currently up 116 points while the Nasdaq has gained 20 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (2.70%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point if comparing to Friday’s morning pricing.
Today has nothing scheduled that is of relevance to mortgage rates. Look for stock movement to affect mortgage rates more than anything else the rest of the day as traders prepare for what is coming over the next four days. Over that period, we will get eight economic reports that have the potential influence mortgage pricing, including three highly important reports. In addition to the economic data, there is also an FOMC meeting this week that will also likely have a heavy impact on the markets.
April’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start it all at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index is considered to be an indicator of future spending by consumers. The Conference Board surveys 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and savings, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation and economic growth to a minimum. On the other hand, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 83.6, which would be an increase from March’s 82.3 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.
Wednesday has four things taking place that are worth watching. The two most important are the highly influential initial GDP reading for the first quarter and the afternoon adjournment of the FOMC meeting. Thursday brings us the ISM manufacturing index that is known to have a noticeable effect on the financial and mortgage markets. And then Friday caps the week with the almighty Employment report. Throughout those releases we also will get some less-important data that can contribute to the day’s gains or losses in the major indexes and mortgage rates.
Overall, Friday is the best candidate for most important day of the week although we could see plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage rates Wednesday and Thursday also.