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Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 4, 2015

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite early strength in stocks. The major stock indexes are showing fairly sizable gains with the Dow up 97 points and the Nasdaq up 33 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.10%), but due to bond weakness Friday we could still see a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates.

February’s Factory Orders data was posted by the Commerce Department at 10:00 AM ET this morning. They announced that new orders at U.S. factories for durable and non-durable products rose 2.1% last month, matching forecasts. This indicates growth in the manufacturing sector, but since it did not come as a surprise we can consider the news neutral towards mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled for release. There are three remaining reports scheduled for release this week that are likely to affect mortgage rates. One of those reports is extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets, so we may see noticeable movement in rates more than one day. In addition to the economic reports, there are quite a few speaking engagements by current Fed members today through Wednesday, including Chairperson Yellen, that always draw attention as traders look for any surprises or hints towards future monetary policy moves.

Overall, Friday is the single most important day of the week due to the significance of the monthly Employment report. Tomorrow could be active also with a couple reports and Janet Yellen’s speech. Thursday is the best candidate for lightest day with exception to traders making adjustments before Friday key economic release. Despite the fact that we have only one really important economic report, I still recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 3, 2015

This week only has four reports scheduled for release that are likely to affect mortgage rates. One of those reports is extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets, so the lighter schedule doesn’t necessarily mean a calm week for rates. In addition to the economic reports, there are quite a few speaking engagements by current Fed members the first half of the week, including Chairperson Yellen, that always draw attention as traders look for any surprises or hints towards future monetary policy moves.

The week’s calendar begins tomorrow with the release of February’s Factory Orders at 10:00 AM ET. This data is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was posted the week before last, except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods and gives us another measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is considered to be only moderately important to the bond and mortgage markets, so unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 2.1% increase, I suspect that the data will have a minimal impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

Tuesday has nothing in terms of economic reports that we need to be concerned with, but Wednesday has two. The ADP Employment report is set for release early Wednesday morning, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADP’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that usually follows a couple days later. Still, because we do often see a reaction to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 189,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

The second report of the day will come from the Labor Department, who will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data during early morning hours. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a sizable decline could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise slightly Wednesday morning. It is expected to show a 1.9% drop in worker productivity during the first three months of the year.

The biggest news of the week will come early Friday morning when the Labor Department posts March’s Employment report, revealing the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. This is an extremely important report to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate slipped from 5.5% to 5.4% and that approximately 213,000 payrolls were added to the economy during the month. A higher unemployment rate and a much smaller than expected payroll number would be good news for bonds and would likely push mortgage rates lower Friday morning because it would indicate weaker than thought conditions in the employment sector of the economy. However, stronger than expected results would probably fuel a stock rally and bond selling that leads to a sizable increase in mortgage pricing.

Overall, Friday is the single most important day of the week due to the significance of the monthly Employment report. Wednesday could be active also with a couple reports and Janet Yellen’s speech. Thursday is the best candidate for lightest day with exception to traders making adjustments before Friday key economic release. Despite the fact that we have only one really important economic report, I still recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- May 1, 2015

Friday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory despite uneventful headline numbers in today’s economic reports. Stocks are contributing to the early bond selling with the Dow up 139 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32 (2.10), but the increase in this morning’s mortgage rates should be limited to approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

Neither of this morning’s economic reports gave us unfavorable results in their primary readings. The first was the University of Michigan’s revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. It showed a 95.9 reading, matching the preliminary estimate that was posted earlier this month. Analysts were expecting to see a 96.0 reading, so no surprise there. This means consumer confidence about their own financial and employment situations did not change over the month. With no strengthening or decline in confidence, we can consider the data neutral for mortgage rates.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index late this morning also. This was the key report that was expected to boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates today. We did get what appears to be favorable news in the headline reading of 51.5. That matched March’s final reading, indicating that manufacturer sentiment did not improve or weaken last month. What makes it good news is the fact that analysts were calling for an increase. Therefore, the weaker number should be good news for mortgage rates. Unfortunately, some surprises in a couple of the components in the report, coupled with today’s strong stock gains, have prevented the heavy positive influence on bonds and mortgage rates that we expected.

Today’s bond reaction is disappointing to say the least. Since yields have moved higher against logic, we should go back to a cautious approach towards locking a rate if closing in the near future. With the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield still above 2.00%, it would be prudent to proceed carefully if still floating an rate. At least until the market stabilizes. The longer-term outlook has not changed, yet.

Next week does not have too many reports or other events scheduled that are expected to influence mortgage rates. Although, one of the reports is the almighty monthly Employment report next Friday. There is something set for Monday with the release of March’s Factory Orders report, but it is not considered to be a highly important piece of data. Look for details on it and the rest of the week’s calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 30, 2015

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic data, even though stocks are in selling mode during early trading. The major stock indexes are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 115 points and the Nasdaq down 39 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (2.08%), but due to strength late yesterday afternoon we may not see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Wednesday’s morning pricing.

There were three pieces of data posted early this morning, none of which are considered to be key or highly important. The first was last week’s unemployment update that showed 262,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a large decline from the previous week’s revised 296,000 initial claims, indicating the employment sector strengthened last week. That makes the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. It is worth noting that because this is only a weekly snapshot of the sector, it usually does not influence mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this was enough of a variance from forecasts to have a negative impact on bond trading and this morning’s mortgage pricing.

The second release of the morning was March’s Personal Income and Outlays data, giving us a measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending levels. The report revealed no change in income and a 0.4% rise in spending. Both readings were weaker than what analysts were expecting, so we can consider them good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, traders don’t seem to be too impressed with the news because this was the most important of the three reports and we are still showing bonds losses.

We also got the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) this morning. It showed a 0.7% increase, slightly exceeding expectations of a 0.6% rise. Since it tracks employer costs for worker wages and benefits that helps us measure wage inflation, the stronger reading makes the data slightly unfavorable for the bond and mortgage market.

The week closes tomorrow with two more reports, with one being considered a key piece of data for bonds and mortgage rates. The University of Michigan will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment and their willingness to spend. Current forecasts are calling for little change from the preliminary reading of 95.9. This means that surveyed consumers were just as optimistic about their own financial situations as they were earlier this month. This data is relevant because if consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic growth. I don’t expect this report to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it shows a noticeable revision due to the importance of the day’s second release.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for April late tomorrow morning in the second highly important report of the week. This is usually the first important economic report released each month and gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. This points toward more manufacturing sector growth and could hurt bond prices, pushing mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 51.9, up from March’s 51.5. Ideally, bond traders would like to see a reading below 50.0 as it would hint at contraction in the manufacturing sector rather than growth, but a decline from March’s level would still be good news for mortgage shoppers.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 29, 2015

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE :
This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with no adjustment to key short-term interest rates, as expected. In the post-meeting statement the Fed acknowledged the economy and labor market are not where they need to be to raise rates. The statement did not rule out a hike at June’s FOMC meeting that many analysts had targeted as the first move, but the softer economic data and inflation readings that are below their preferred levels make it quite possible that the first move won’t come until later in the year.

Overall, there was nothing too significant or surprising in the statement. The major stock indexes aren’t far off from their morning levels with the Dow down 69 points and the Nasdaq down 23 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (2.04%), but I would not be surprised to see some lenders improve rates slightly before the end of the day since the markets appear to have been expecting unfavorable news from the FOMC statement.

This morning did have an extremely important economic report released. The preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading was posted at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.2% that was well short of forecasts. Analysts were expecting to see a 1.0% annual rate, meaning that economy was not nearly as strong as many had predicted during the first three months of the year. That is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, it is believed that bad weather and other unexpected factors skewed the reading lower.

Tomorrow has three pieces of data that may influence mortgage rates. With the FOMC meeting behind us now, more weak economic data should have a more predictable impact on bonds and mortgage rates. The first of the three is last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM. They are expected to show that 290,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were field last week, down from the previous week’s 295,000. This data doesn’t usually cause much movement in rates because it is only a weekly snapshot, but it does have the potential if it shows a wide variance from forecasts.

The second is March’s Personal Income and Outlays data also at 8:30 AM ET. It helps us measure consumers’ ability to spend and current spending habits. This information is important to the mortgage market due to the influence that consumer spending-related data has on the financial markets. If a consumer’s income is rising, they have the ability to make additional purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in the income reading and a 0.5% rise in spending. If we see smaller than expected readings, the bond market should open higher tomorrow morning.

Also early tomorrow is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). This index tracks employer costs for wages and benefits, giving us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns rise as employers will need to pass those increases into the pricing of their products and services. That would cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing although I doubt this report will affect mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.6%.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 29, 2015

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending yesterday’s afternoon weakness despite some extremely favorable economic news. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the bond-favorable economic data with the Dow down 75 points and the Nasdaq down 19 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (2.04%), which with yesterday’s selling should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

We saw bonds slide late yesterday as investors positioned themselves for today’s events. Yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note auction wasn’t the cause. The auction actually went well with several indicators we use to gauge investor demand showing a strong level of interest in the securities. That helps us remain optimistic about today’s 7-year Note auction, although there are more important afternoon events scheduled today. Still, a strong demand in the sale is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, even if we likely will see little reaction to the results.

This morning did have an extremely important economic report released. The preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading was posted at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.2% that was well short of forecasts. Analysts were expecting to see a 1.0% annual rate, meaning that economy was not nearly as strong as many had predicted during the first three months of the year. That is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, it is believed that bad weather and other unexpected factors skewed the reading lower. In addition, it appears traders are more focused on this afternoon’s events than this morning’s data, preventing a favorable reaction to the data.

We also the FOMC meeting adjournment to deal with at 2:00 PM ET this afternoon. It will likely yield an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may still see some volatility in the markets following the post-meeting statement. If the statement gives any hint about when they expect to make the first increase to key short-term interest rates, we could see another sizable change to mortgage rates during afternoon trading.

We will update this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the statement. There is some relevant economic data set for release tomorrow, but it will be addressed in this afternoon’s update.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 28, 2015

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite much weaker than expected economic news and minor stock losses. The Dow is currently down 23 points while the Nasdaq has lost 10 points during early trading. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (1.95%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only relevant economic data was April’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced that their CCI fell to 95.2 this month, coming up well short of analysts’ expectations. Forecasts were calling for an increase, pushing the index upward by almost a point to 102.2. The large decline means that surveyed consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. Because falling confidence levels usually translates into weaker consumer spending, we can consider this report very good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, traders appear to be more concerned about tomorrow’s events than today’s news.

We also have a Treasury auction later today that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. 5-year Treasury Notes are being sold today while 7-year Notes will go tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make government securities more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day to say the least. It starts at 8:30 AM ET with the release of the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause sizable movement in the financial markets and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting it to show that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.0% during the first three months of this year. That would be a much slower pace than the 2.2% pace of the final quarter of last year. A smaller increase or a decline would be considered good news for mortgage rates. But a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

This week’s FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow afternoon. It will likely yield an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may still see some volatility in the markets following the post-meeting statement. If the statement gives any hint about when they expect to make the first increase to key short-term interest rates, we could see another sizable change to mortgage rates during afternoon trading.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 27, 2015

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks starting the week in positive ground. The Dow is currently up 71 points while the Nasdaq has gained 23 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (1.94%), but due to strength late Friday we should see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. However, the rest of the week brings us the release of six economic reports that may affect mortgage rates in addition to an FOMC meeting and a couple Treasury auctions. Two of the week’s reports are considered to be extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets and can cause a great deal of volatility. Throw in the FOMC meeting and we have the makings of a highly important week, not only for mortgage rates but also for the broader financial markets.

April’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick-off the week’s schedule at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index is considered to be an indicator of future spending by consumers. The Conference Board surveys 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and savings, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation and economic growth to a minimum. On the other hand, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 102.2, which would be an increase from March’s 101.3 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow also has the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence mortgage pricing. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make government securities more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Overall, I am expecting it to be a pretty active week for the markets and mortgage rates. We have several days that appear likely to be particularly volatile. Wednesday looks to be the best candidate for most important due to the GDP reading and FOMC meeting. The calmest day should be today. If floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 26, 2015

This week brings us the release of six economic reports that may affect mortgage rates in addition to an FOMC meeting and a couple Treasury auctions. Two of the week’s reports are considered to be extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets and can cause a great deal of volatility. Throw in the FOMC meeting and we have the makings of a highly important week, not only for mortgage rates but also for the broader financial markets.

There is nothing scheduled for tomorrow that is likely to move rates. April’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick-off the week’s schedule at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This index is considered to be an indicator of future spending by consumers. The Conference Board surveys 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and savings, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation and economic growth to a minimum. On the other hand, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 102.2, which would be an increase from March’s 101.3 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Next up is the first of this week’s two key pieces of economic data. That would be the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measure of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause sizable movement in the financial markets Wednesday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting it to show that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.1% during the first three months of this year. That would be a much slower pace than the 2.2% pace of the final quarter of last year. A smaller increase or a decline would be considered good news for mortgage rates. But a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

This week’s FOMC meeting will begin Tuesday and adjourn Wednesday afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the post-meeting statement. If the statement gives any hint of change in their current forecasts on when they expect to adjust key short-term interest rates, we could see a sizable change to mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday has two reports scheduled that are worth watching. The first is March’s Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. It helps us measure consumers’ ability to spend and current spending habits. This information is important to the mortgage market due to the influence that consumer spending-related data has on the financial markets. If a consumer’s income is rising, they have the ability to make additional purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in the income reading and a 0.5% rise in spending. If we see smaller than expected readings, the bond market should open higher Thursday morning.

Also early Thursday is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). This index tracks employer costs for wages and benefits, giving us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns rise as employers will need to pass those increases into the pricing of their products and services. That would cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing although I doubt this report will affect mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.6%.

The week closes with the two more reports, one of which is considered to be a key piece of data for bonds and mortgage rates. The University of Michigan will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April just before 10:00 AM ET Friday. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment and their willingness to spend. Current forecasts are calling for little change from the preliminary reading of 95.9. This means that surveyed consumers were just as optimistic about their own financial situations as they were earlier this month. This data is relevant because if consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic growth. I don’t expect this report to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it shows a noticeable revision due to the importance of the day’s second release.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for April late Thursday morning in the second highly important report of the week. This is usually the first important economic report released each month and gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. This points toward more manufacturing activity and could hurt bond prices, pushing mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 52.0, up from March’s 51.5. Ideally, bond traders would like to see a reading below 50.0 as it would hint at contraction in the manufacturing sector rather than growth, but a decline from March’s level would still be good news for mortgage shoppers.

In addition to this week’s economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes Tuesday and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make government securities more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Overall, I am expecting it to be a pretty active week for the markets and mortgage rates. We have several days that appear likely to be particularly volatile. Wednesday looks to be the best candidate for most important due to the GDP reading and FOMC meeting. The calmest day could be tomorrow, although I would not be surprised to still see some movement as investors prepare for this week’s activities. If floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- April 24, 2015

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory even though today’s only relevant economic data appeared to give us strong results. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow down 9 points and the Nasdaq up 32 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (1.92%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department announced early this morning that new Durable Goods Orders rose 4.0% last month, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase. The headline number appears to show manufacturing sector growth that would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, a secondary reading that excludes orders for more volatile and costly transportation-related products such as new airplanes, actually showed a 0.2% decline when analysts were expecting a 0.4% increase. This means that if the transportation orders are stripped, durable goods demand fell last month. That is an indication of manufacturing sector weakness, making the data slightly favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

I would not be surprised to see some afternoon movement in bonds as traders prepare for next week’s activities that include an FOMC meeting, possibly leading to an afternoon improvement in rates. I am not necessarily expecting stocks to drive bond trading, although a significant move either direction for stocks certainly can influence bonds. With the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield near the upper end of its recent trading range, the risk for higher rates is minimal in my opinion. At least until we get to some of next week’s events.

Next week is packed with important data and events that have the potential to affect mortgage rates. None of it is scheduled for Monday, but there is at least one item set for every other day of the week with some of them considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. Look for details on those and the rest of next week’s calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.