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Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 24, 2014

Thursday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory even though stocks are flat. Stocks are in positive ground during early trading but not by much. The Dow is currently up 14 points while the Nasdaq has gained 4 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (2.51%), which with yesterday’s afternoon weakness should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point if comparing to Wednesday’s morning pricing.

The first of this morning’s two pieces of economic data was last week’s unemployment numbers at 8:30 AM ET. They revealed some surprising results with only 284,000 new claims for unemployment benefits filed last week. This was well below the previous week’s revised 303,000 initial claims and the 308,000 that was expected. It also was the lowest number since February 2006, indicating that the employment sector was stronger last week than many had thought. This data usually doesn’t have much of an impact on rates because it is only a weekly snapshot, but this was enough of a variance to help push this morning’s mortgage rates higher.

June’s New Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET, also showing some surprising results. The Commerce Department announced that sales of newly constructed homes fell 8.1% from May’s revised total. This was a larger monthly decline than was expected, making the data positive for bonds and mortgage rates. Even more newsworthy was a sizable downward revision to May’s sales with no explanation. This means that the new home portion of the housing sector was actually pretty weak in May and did not rebound last month.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of 0.3% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates because it would point towards economic strength. If it reveals a large decline in new orders, mortgage rates should move lower. It should be noted though that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not affect the markets or mortgage rates.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 23,2014

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending yesterday afternoon’s upward move. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq up 21 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 which with yesterday’s late move should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over Tuesday’s morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance set for release or otherwise scheduled for today. Look for stock movement to drive bond trading and be the cause if there is an intra-day revision in mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, mortgage rates should follow suit. If stocks move higher later today, bonds will likely weaken, possibly leading to an upward change in rates this afternoon.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data for the markets to digest, but neither is considered to be highly important or likely to cause a noticeable move in rates. The first is the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show that 308,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week’s 302,000. The higher the number of initial claims, the better the news it is for the bond and mortgage markets because rising claims indicates a softening employment sector. However, since this is a weekly report instead of a monthly or quarterly tracking period, it usually takes a wide variance from forecasts for the data to influence mortgage rates.

June’s New Home Sales report will be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Commerce Department report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength. Analysts are expecting it to show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the new home portion of the housing sector weakened last month. That would be considered favorable news for bonds, but since this data tracks only a small percentage of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Yesterday’s Existing Home Sales report covers most of the home sales in the U.S.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trend-July 22,2014

Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with this morning’s economic data showing mixed results and stock posting early gains. The Dow is currently up 66 points while the Nasdaq has gained 34 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.49%), which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data. The overall reading matched forecasts and the core reading was slightly lower than expected, meaning inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy remained subdued last month. That makes the data slightly favorable for the bond and mortgage markets.

The National Association of Realtors announced late this morning that home resales rose 2.6% in June, to their highest level in 8 months. That was a bit stronger than forecasts but not enough of a margin to cause much concern in the bond market. Therefore, we can consider the data to be slightly negative for bonds because it hints at economic growth.

Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled that will likely influence mortgage rates. This will leave the recent geopolitical events and stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing tomorrow. Unless we see a significant rally or selling in stocks, I am expecting mortgage rates to remain fairly calm tomorrow.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Trends-July 21,2014

This week brings us only four pieces of economic data that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. We are also still in corporate earnings season, so any surprises in those releases could affect stock and bond trading, leading to changes in mortgage rates. There is mortgage rate-relevant data set to be posted three of the five days this week.

The week’s activities begin early Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a mirror of last week’s PPI with the exception that this report measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading because it gives us a more stable measure of inflation as it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Higher than expected readings could raise future inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher, while readings that fall short of forecasts should lead to lower rates early Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors will post June’s Existing Home Sales figures late Tuesday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales from May’s totals. A drop in sales would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult. However, unless this data varies greatly from forecasts it probably will lead to only a minor change in mortgage rates.

Wednesday has nothing of importance scheduled that will likely influence mortgage rates. Thursday’s sole economic report is June’s New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. This Commerce Department report gives us another measurement of housing sector strength. Analysts are expecting it to show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the new home portion of the housing sector weakened last month. That would be considered favorable news for bonds, but since this data tracks only a small percentage of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. The Existing Home Sales report covers most of the home sales in the U.S.

The Commerce Department will post June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Current forecasts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of 0.3% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning because it would point towards economic strength. If it reveals a large decline in new orders, mortgage rates should move lower. It should be noted though that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not move the markets or mortgage rates.

Overall, Tuesday will likely be the most active day for mortgage rates although Friday’s report is the single most important. Wednesday is the best candidate for calmest day with nothing of importance scheduled. Tomorrow is also light but weekend events in the geopolitical arena could make it a fairly active day. With those unpredictable issues and the uncertainty of corporate earnings, we could see noticeable moves in rates multiple days this week with a decent chance of intraday revisions.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- July 18,2014

“New home sales, which surged in May, look to continue to rise based on the housing market index which, rising 4 points to 53 in July, is at its best level since January. Components show special strength for sales expectations, at 64 for a 6 point gain and, importantly, a 4-point gain to 57 for current sales.” [Bloomberg].

We will get the latest figure for New Home Sales on Thursday (7/24). This may be an important piece of data. Expectations have grown that New Home Sales might truly break out of their long slumber. Most recently, the NAHB Housing Market Index, based on a monthly survey of builders, has shown growing confidence in New Home market improvements.

But something odd remains. In last week’s report, we saw the overall housing market index rise a strong 4 points. A reading of 50 or above (it was 53) suggests the market is expand-ing…no longer contracting. At the same time, we saw a 6-point gain for sales expectations (belief that sales would improve further in the future) where the index reached 64, and a 4-point gain for current (near-term) sales, at 57.

All of this has spread a strong optimism over the New Homes market. But–the survey measures the strength of potential buyer traffic as 39. Far below 50, and below what one might expect from an improving market.

Why hasn’t the buyer traffic component risen along with sales expectations? It’s a curious moment for New Home Sales. As is often the case these days, many analysts blame the lack of Entry-Level Buyers, especially Millenials (ages 18-34). We may tire of blaming the difficult twists and turns of this recov-ery on them. Meantime, let’s assume we have something here that we can’t yet understand.

Also difficult to understand is the weak growth of mortgage applications-particularly purchase money loans. If sales of homes are growing, and more lender-financed transactions are being written, we would expect more applications to be reported in this index. It seems to be another case of the left hand not quite knowing what the right is doing, and it may eventuate in a spike in mortgage applications within the next few months. But there may also be something a little more worrisome holding back the mortgage applications–like bureaucratic delays perhaps–as paperwork is processed slowly.

All told, nonetheless, there is much reason to look at the indicators that will be published this week and next with great interest. New Homes Sales could continue to rise significantly, and Existing Homes Sales could affirm the upward movement.

Meantime, Chairwoman Yellen and most of the Fed’s Board of Governors are quietly hinting that we may see rising short-term rates a bit sooner than expected–in the second half of 2015. This should remind us that, if we want the benefit of these historically low rates for years to come, we should perhaps secure our longer-term financing NOW.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 18, 2014

Friday’s bond market has opened fairly flat despite weaker than predicted economic news. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 49 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points. The bond market is currently almost unchanged from yesterday’s close at 2.47% but you may still see a slight increase in rates if your lender improved yesterday afternoon.

We saw a big move in bonds late yesterday as geopolitical events took center stage. The airliner that was shot down over Ukraine and the Israel/Gaza crisis both contributed to an investor flight-to-safety late yesterday that drove stock prices lower and bond prices higher. This is where investors move funds from the volatility of stocks into bonds that tend to thrive during global turmoil. The result was a fairly wide range of lenders making an intraday improvement to mortgage rates. While that is welcomed news for mortgage shoppers, it should be taken cautiously as these flight-to-safety rallies almost always reverse course when the crisis appears to have stabilized or at least stops escalating. In other words, it is not an event that usually starts a downward trend in rates. It is more or less a temporary event that eventually corrects itself.

There were two pieces of economic data posted late this morning. The first was the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for July just before 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 81.3 that was a decline from June’s 82.5 reading and much lower than analysts were expecting. This means surveyed consumers were less confident of their own financial and employment situations than many had thought and will likely delay making a large purchase in the near future. That makes the data favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also released was June’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) that showed a 0.3% increase. This was also softer than forecasts were calling for and hints that economy may grow over the next several months but at a little slower pace than previously expected. Therefore, we should also consider this data good news for mortgage rates. However, this data is not important enough to cause much of a move in the financial or mortgage markets.

Next week is not as busy as this week was but still has a couple of economic reports scheduled that can influence the bond market and mortgage rates. None of the data is set for release Monday, allowing the weekend’s geopolitical events (or stabilization) to drive market trading.

Mortgage and Interest Rate Trends

Build It And They May Buy-Commentary ~ June 13, 2014

 The closest we have to Big News here is that there was an upward spike in the number of mortgages applied for in the week ending June 6. Is this exciting? It depends on how this is interpreted.

Rising demand for mortgages could, after all, signal that mortgage rates may finally edge higher. But, as is well known by now, whatever took the demand for mortgages-both purchase money and refinancings-higher could turn on a proverbial dime.

On the other hand, it is somewhat possible–though perhaps not worthy of betting actual money on–that the relatively good employment figures have for the past few months been suggesting that we’re edging toward a better economy, with more mortgage applications and greater real estate sales volume. We’ve had a medium-term improvement to the number of applications for unemployment insurance as well as a gradual rise to the number of pending home sales and perhaps even a growth in the number of new home sales that may be with us for a while.

That said, the curious thing about this possibility is how few analysts are talking about it. Very few market-watchers seem ready to go out on a limb these days, particularly with so many political problems vying for our attention.

At this moment, though, there is reason to be putting together one’s financial plan for the coming few months–and years. It is very likely a good time to keep in mind the against-the-grain analysis of Shaila Dewan in the International New York Times. She joined other analysts in asserting that “price growth appears to have peaked in several cities, particularly in the South and West, where large inventories of foreclosures have already been absorbed…. They predicted that in response, builders would step up the construction of new homes.”

This is what many market observers have been awaiting. The fact that we have a shortage of for-sale inventory–and a tremendous lack of new construction to build up that inventory–just hasn’t been addressed adequately with the completion of new inventory. It may indeed be worth waiting (as patiently as we still can) for the spikes in new construction to announce a resumption of the true real estate recovery…the one that addresses our underlying problems.

Perhaps the rising tide of new mortgages is a very early harbinger of a stronger housing recovery ahead.

Lake Tahe and Incline Village Home Loan Rates and Trends – June 2, 2014

Lake Tahoe and Incline Village Home Loan Rates:

There are six economic reports scheduled for release this week that have the potential to affect mortgage rates. We have monthly reports set for every day except Thursday with a couple of those reports considered to be highly important. Therefore, I believe it will be another active week for mortgage rates.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index will be posted late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. One reason why it is considered so important is the fact that it is the first piece of economic data posted every month that covers the preceding month. In other words, it is the first look into the previous month’s economic conditions. That differs from many reports that aren’t released until mid or late month. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting to see a 55.6 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment rose a little during May. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a larger than expected increase could contribute to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

Tuesday’s only release will come from the Commerce Department, who will post April’s Factory Orders data during late morning trading. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn’t expected to cause much of a change in rates this month. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in orders of 0.5%.

Wednesday has three reports worth watching. The ADP Employment report is first, set for release before the markets open. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers than expected. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADP’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we have seen reaction to the report recently, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 200,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

The revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data is the second that will be released Wednesday. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation. Many analysts believe that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high. Last month’s preliminary reading revealed a 1.7% decline in productivity and a 4.2% increase in labor costs. Wednesday’s update is predicted to show that productivity fell at a 2.5% annual rate while labor costs rose 4.8%. I don’t think this piece of data will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing either unless it varies greatly from expectations.

Wednesday’s final relevant report is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which is named simply after the color of its cover. This report details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity since the last report, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday doesn’t have any monthly or quarterly economic data for us to be concerned with but Friday’s sole report is arguably the single most important report that we see each month. The Labor Department will post May’s Employment data early Friday morning, giving us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate move from 6.3% to 6.4% with approximately 220,000 jobs added to the economy during the month. A higher than expected unemployment rate and a much smaller number than the 164,000 new payrolls would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger than expected numbers should cause a stock rally and a spike in mortgage rates.

Overall, it appears that Friday is the key day of the week with regards to mortgage rate movement. However, tomorrow or Wednesday could also be active days for mortgage pricing. Tuesday or Thursday will probably be the lightest day unless something totally unexpected happens with stocks. Although, as we have seen many times over the past couple weeks, we don’t necessarily have to have a significant event or economic report released for the bond market and mortgage rates to become volatile

Lake Tahoe and Incline Village Mortgage Rate Trends – May 26, 2014

Lake Tahoe and Incline Village Mortgage Rate Trends:

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence bond trading and mortgage rates. None of the reports are considered to be key data, but all of them do carry enough significance to affect mortgage rates if their results show sizable surprises. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Memorial Day holiday and will reopen for regular trading Tuesday morning. Accordingly, we will not be updating this report tomorrow.

April’s Durable Goods Orders will start this week’s calendar early Tuesday morning. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. These are items made with an expected life span of three or more years such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. It is currently expected to show a decline in new orders of approximately 1.3%, hinting that the manufacturing sector softened a little last month. That would be relatively good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is known to be quite volatile. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts would likely have little impact on Tuesday’s mortgage rates. The larger the decline, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

The Conference Board is next with their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM Tuesday. This data measures consumer willingness to spend. If the index rises, it indicates that consumers felt better about their personal financial and employment situations and therefore are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. If confidence is sliding, analysts think consumer spending may slow in the near future. The latter is good news for the bond market because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline in the index should boost bond prices and push mortgage rates lower Tuesday morning while a larger than expected increase would likely cause rates to move higher. It is expected to show a reading of 82.7, up from April’s 82.3 reading.

Wednesday has nothing scheduled that is expected to affect mortgage rates except the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that are worth watching. The Fed will auction 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.

The next report will be Thursday’s revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. This is the first of two revisions that we get. The second revision to this index comes next month but isn’t expected to carry much importance. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth. Last month’s preliminary reading revealed a 0.1% increase in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect a downward revision of 0.6% in this update. If the revision comes in much stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher because it would mean the economy was stronger than thought last quarter. It will be interesting to see how the markets react if we did have economic contraction during the first three months of the year since bonds tend to thrive during weaker economic conditions.

Friday has the remaining two pieces of data. April’s Personal Income and Outlays data is the first at 8:30 AM ET. It gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. An increase in income means that consumers have more money available to spend. As we pointed out above, since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy, this data can cause movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a 0.3% increase in income and a 0.2% rise in spending. Weaker readings would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The last relevant data of the week will come from the University of Michigan, who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May late Friday morning. This type of data is watched fairly closely because when consumers are feeling more confident about their own financial situations, they are more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Rising confidence and the higher levels of spending that usually follow are considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Friday’s report is expected to show a decline of 0.4 from this month’s preliminary reading of 81.8. A higher reading would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing while a larger decline should help boost bond prices and lead to a slight improvement in rates.

Overall, I think Tuesday is the best candidate for most active day for mortgage rates this week although Thursday’s GDP reading will draw plenty of attention also if it does show a negative reading. With two relatively important reports scheduled for Friday, it may also be an active day. The least active day will probably be Wednesday unless the stock markets rally or show sizable losses. Please keep in mind though, as we saw several days the past couple weeks, we don’t necessarily have to have important data for the markets and mortgage pricing to move considerably.

Economic Reports for the week of May 19, 2014 which will affect Lake Tahoe and Incline Village Mortgage Rates

Factors Affecting This Week’s Mortgage Interest Rates:

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of relevant economic news in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. None of the economic data is considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates, but they do carry enough significance to influence mortgage rates if they show a wide variance from forecasts. Tomorrow and Tuesday have nothing of importance scheduled, so look for stock movement to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates. Stock gains will probably pressure bonds and cause mortgage rates to move higher. If the major stock indexes show losses during the first couple days, we may see bonds thrive and mortgage rates move lower.

The first event of the week comes late Wednesday when the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation or geopolitical concerns in the economy and their impact on economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Fed’s next move regarding interest rates and their current bond-buying program (QE3). Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading Wednesday.

The National Association of Realtors will give us the first piece of economic data with the release of their Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. This data tracks resales of existing homes in the U.S. during April, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. This type of data is relevant because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in home sales between March and April. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a decline, indicating housing sector weakness. A large increase in sales could lead to bond weakness and a small increase in mortgage rates Thursday morning since a strengthening housing sector raises optimism about general economic growth.

April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will also be released at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to strengthen over the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher Thursday.

The final release is April’s New Home Sales report late Friday morning. It is the sister report of the Existing Home Sales report. This data gives us a similar measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but tracks a much smaller portion of housing sales than Thursday’s report does. Actually, it probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing unless it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see gains in sales from March’s level, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector also strengthened last month.

Overall, I believe Thursday will be the most important day for rates, although Friday should be active also as it will be shortened due to the early close ahead of the Memorial Day. I suspect that Tuesday will be the calmest day of the week. Even though there is nothing to be concerned with tomorrow, selling in bonds late Friday means there is a small increase in mortgage rates waiting if your lender did not make an upward revision during afternoon trading. I don’t think we will see as much movement in rates was what we saw last week.