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Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- July 31, 2014

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending yesterday’s sell-off. The stock markets are in heavy selling mode with the Dow down 135 points and the Nasdaq down 46 points. Those losses have helped stem bond weakness but the bond market is still down 9/32 (2.58%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by another .125 of a discount point. This is in addition to yesterday’s afternoon upward move of .250 – .375 of a discount point.

This morning had two pieces of relatively minor economic data posted. The first was last week’s unemployment figures that showed 302,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable increase from the previous week’s revised 279,000 initial claims but a little short of the 310,000 that was expected. That makes the data neutral for the bond market and mortgage rates. The large increase is favorable but falling short of expectations, particularly after the previous week’s big drop, offsets any benefit.

Also at 8:30 AM today was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. It came in with a 0.7% increase that was a larger rise than the 0.4% that forecasted. This means that employer costs rose more than many had thought last quarter. Since that is a sign of wage inflation, we should consider the news negative for bonds and mortgage pricing.

While today is fairly light compared to yesterday’s activities and likely welcomed by market participants, tomorrow gets real interesting again because we have four economic reports coming tomorrow morning, including two major releases. The first is the most important report we see each month when the Labor Department posts their monthly Employment report for July. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings for July. The best scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a sizable loss of jobs and little change in earnings. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained at 6.1% last month while approximately 225,000 jobs were added to the economy. Due to the importance of these readings, we will most likely see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing immediately following their 8:30 AM ET posting.

June’s Personal Income and Outlays data will also be posted early tomorrow morning. This report helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.4% in income and a 0.4% rise in spending. A larger than expected increase in income means consumers have more funds to spend, which is not favorable to bonds because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. We would like to see declines in spending and income that would indicate economic weakness, but the smaller the increase in each, the better the news for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though that the Employment report will draw more attention than this data will.

Next is July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET that will help us measure consumer optimism about their own financial situations. This data is considered relevant because rising consumer confidence usually translates into higher levels of spending that adds fuel to the economic recovery and is looked at as bad news for bonds. Tomorrow’s release is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 81.3, I think the markets will probably shrug off this data.

And finally, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for July will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives about business conditions during the month and is considered to be of high importance to the markets. One reason it draws so much attention is that this report is usually the first released each month that tracks the preceding month’s activity. A reading above 50.0 means more surveyed executives felt that business improved this month than those who said it had worsened. June’s reading came in at 55.3, above that important threshold. Tomorrow’s release is expected to show a reading of 55.9, meaning surveyed executives felt business conditions improved from June to July. Ideally, we would like to see a decline as it would point towards a softening manufacturing sector, especially if it gets close to 50.0.

Be prepared for another active day in the markets tomorrow. Most of the movement will likely come during morning trading, but after such a volatile week I would not be surprised to see some movement in the afternoon also as traders wrap up and digest this week’s activity.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- July 30, 2014

Wednesday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following much stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets weren’t swayed as much as bonds though as the major indexes are mixed. The Dow is currently down 7 points while the Nasdaq has gained 20 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32 (2.51%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The first round of today’s key events was not exactly favorable to the bond market or mortgage rates. We first got the ADP Employment report 8:15 AM ET that showed an increase of 218,000 private-sector payrolls for the company. That was very close to forecasts, but even though it was not a surprise number it still is a decent increase. I personally don’t put much weight into the data, however, it does draw attention in the markets until we get to the monthly government report Friday. Therefore, we should consider the news neutral to slightly negative for mortgage rates, at least until Friday morning when this number will be forgotten.

Today’s major news was the initial reading to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. This index is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or weakness. Today’s release revealed the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.0%, well above the 3.1% that was expected and a significant rebound from the revised 1st Quarter decline of 2.1%. This means that the economy was stronger than many had thought and was clearly negative news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

It is the total of all goods and services that are produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important report we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy grew at a 3.1% annual rate during the second quarter, rebounding significantly from the first quarter’s 2.9% decline. A faster rate of growth should hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller than expected reading will likely fuel a bond market rally and push mortgage pricing lower since it would indicate the economy was not as strong as many had thought.

Today also has the second of this week’s two Treasury auctions today that may affect mortgage rates. 7-year Treasury Notes are being sold today, following yesterday’s 50year Note auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. Yesterday’s auction went pretty well with several indicators points towards a decent level of investor demand. If we get similar results again today, we may see bond prices improve again immediately after. However, it would likely be short-lived because of what is happening an hour later.

The FOMC meeting that started yesterday will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET today. This is not a meeting that will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen nor is it expected to yield a change to key interest rates. Theoretically, we would like to hear something in the post-meeting statement that indicates the Fed is not going to raise rates until late next year or 2016. There is a decent chance that this meeting and statement will yield no surprise and have little impact on the markets. However, it is such a key event that draws so much focus from analysts and market participants that just a slight variation in the verbiage can cause a noticeable reaction in the financial and mortgage markets. Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the statement.

There is some economic data set for release tomorrow, but it is not considered key and will be addressed in this afternoon’s post-FOMC revision.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- July 29, 2014

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a surprisingly strong piece of economic news. The stock markets are showing noticeable gains with the Dow up 64 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, which may improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only important economic data came from the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET. They announced their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 90.9 in July, exceeding forecasts of85.6 and June’s revised reading of 86.4. This means that surveyed consumers were much more optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than many had thought. That makes the data negative for the bond market and mortgage rates because rising confidence usually means consumers are more apt to spend money, fueling economic growth. However, even though stocks are reacting as expected to the news, bonds don’t seem to be too concerned about the data at the moment.

We also have the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions today that may affect mortgage rates. 5-year Treasury Notes will be sold today with results being posted at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was strong, the broader bond market may move higher during early afternoon trading. If the move is strong enough, we may see afternoon improvements to mortgage rates. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the sale could pressure bonds and cause some lenders to revise pricing slightly higher this afternoon.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data scheduled for release that are likely to influence rates. The first is the ADP Employment report 8:15 AM ET, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs in the company’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week’s calendar. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of approximately 220,000 private payrolls.

Tomorrow also has the first of this week’s three extremely important reports with the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. This index is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or weakness. It is the total of all goods and services that are produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important report we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy grew at a 3.1% annual rate during the second quarter, rebounding significantly from the first quarter’s 2.9% decline. A faster rate of growth should hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller than expected reading will likely fuel a bond market rally and push mortgage pricing lower since it would indicate the economy was not as strong as many had thought.

Lastly, the adjournment of the fifth FOMC meeting of the year is tomorrow afternoon. This is not a meeting that will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen nor is it expected to yield a change to key interest rates. Theoretically, we would like to hear something in the post-meeting statement that indicates the Fed is not going to raise rates until late next year or 2016. There is a decent chance that this meeting and statement will yield no surprise and have little impact on the markets. However, it is such a key event that draws so much focus from analysts and market participants that just a slight variation in the verbiage can cause a noticeable reaction in the financial and mortgage markets. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon hours.

Tomorrow should be quite an active day in the financial and mortgage markets due to market-moving events taking place in the morning and afternoon hours. Be prepared to see large swings in the markets and intraday revisions to mortgage rates tomorrow.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 28, 2014

This week brings us the release of eight economic reports that may impact mortgage rates, some of which are considered to be highly influential. In addition to the economic data, there is also another FOMC meeting that certainly has the potential to cause chaos in the markets and a couple of Treasury auctions Tuesday and Wednesday. There is important data scheduled every day except tomorrow, so there is a strong likelihood of seeing noticeable mortgage rate movement and possibly multiple intra-day revisions this week.

The first economic data of the week comes late Tuesday morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up such a large portion of our economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, meaning that consumers were less confident than thought and likely will delay making a large personal purchase, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 85.6, which would be a higher reading than June’s 85.2 and indicate consumers are a little more comfortable with their finances than they were last month.

Wednesday has two pieces of data that are likely to influence rates. The first is the ADP Employment report before the markets open, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs in the company’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week’s calendar.

The first of this week’s three extremely important report is the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday. This index is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or weakness. It is the total of all goods and services that are produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important report we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy grew at a 3.1% annual rate during the second quarter, rebounding significantly from the first quarter’s 2.9% decline. A faster rate of growth should hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates Wednesday. But a smaller than expected reading will likely fuel a bond market rally and push mortgage pricing lower since it would indicate the economy was not as strong as many had thought.

Also Wednesday is the adjournment of the fifth FOMC meeting of the year that begins Tuesday. This is not a meeting that will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen nor is it expected to yield a change to key interest rates. Theoretically, we would like to hear something in the post-meeting statement that indicates the Fed is not going to raise rates until late next year or 2016. There is a decent chance that this meeting and statement will yield no surprise and have little impact on the markets. However, it is such a key event that draws so much focus from analysts and market participants that just a slight variation in the verbiage can cause a noticeable reaction in the financial and mortgage markets. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon hours.

Thursday’s only data is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns rise as employers will need to pass those increases into the pricing of their products and services. That would cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.4%.

That takes us to Friday, where we have four economic reports, including two major releases. The first is the most important report we see each month when the Labor Department posts their monthly Employment report for July. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings for July. The best scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a sizable loss of jobs and little change in earnings. While many believe the preliminary reading to the GDP is the single most important report in general, it is posted quarterly rather than monthly like the Employment report. Friday’s report is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained at 6.1% last month while approximately 220,000 jobs were added to the economy. Due to the importance of these readings, we will most likely see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing Friday morning following their 8:30 AM ET posting.

June’s Personal Income and Outlays data will also be posted early Friday morning. This report helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. If it shows sizable increases, bond selling could lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.4% in income and a 0.4% rise in spending. A larger than expected increase in income means consumers have more funds to spend, which is not favorable to bonds because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. We would like to see declines in spending and income that would indicate economic weakness, but the smaller the increase in each, the better the news for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though that the Employment report will draw more attention than this data will be.

Next is July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET that will help us measure consumer optimism about their own financial situations. This data is considered relevant because rising consumer confidence usually translates into higher levels of spending that adds fuel to the economic recovery and is looked at as bad news for bonds. Friday’s release is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 81.3, I think the markets will probably shrug off this news.

And finally, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for July will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Friday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives about business conditions during the month and is considered to be of high importance to the markets. One reason it draws so much attention is that this report is usually the first released each month that tracks the preceding month’s activity. A reading above 50.0 means more surveyed executives felt that business improved this month than those who said it had worsened. June’s reading came in at 55.3, above that important threshold. Friday’s release is expected to show a reading of 55.9, meaning surveyed executives felt business conditions improved from June to July. Ideally, we would like to see a decline as it would point towards a softening manufacturing sector, especially is it gets close to 50.0.

Overall, I am expecting to see an extremely active week for financial markets and mortgage rates. I think that the most important day is either going to be Wednesday due to the GDP release and FOMC adjournment or Friday with July’s employment numbers and ISM index being posted. The least important day is tomorrow since nothing of importance is scheduled. I suspect we will see plenty of movement in not only mortgage rates, but also the financial markets in general this week.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 25,2014

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected headline readings in today’s economic data. The stock markets are helping to boost bond prices by showing sizable losses during morning trading. The Dow is currently down 136 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 31 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.48%), but due to weakness late yesterday, we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgages.

We saw mortgage bonds weaken during afternoon trading yesterday, causing many lenders to revise their rates higher late in the day. If your lender was in the majority, then you should see an improvement in today’s early pricing that erases that upward revision. If your lender did not make a move intraday yesterday, then you should see no change in this morning’s rates as today’s strength offsets the weakness from late yesterday.

Today’s only relevant economic data was June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.7% increase in new orders for big-ticket products that exceeded forecasts of a 0.3% increase by a relatively minor margin considering the normal volatility in this data. A secondary reading that tracks new orders excluding more pricey and volatile transportation items, such as airplanes, showed a 0.8% increase when analysts were calling for a 0.7% rise. There were some secondary readings that showed downward revisions to May’s data, but I think a good portion of today’s move in bonds is more a result of stock selling than anything else.

Next week brings us the release of a large amount of economic data and other events that may affect mortgage rates, including three of the most influential reports we get regularly. In addition to the heavy data and a couple of potentially relevant Treasury auctions, there is also another FOMC meeting set for next week. None of them are set for Monday, but we have multiple items scheduled every other day. There is little doubt that we will see a very active week in the financial and mortgage markets. Look for details on next week’s schedule in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 25,2014

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected headline readings in today’s economic data. The stock markets are helping to boost bond prices by showing sizable losses during morning trading. The Dow is currently down 136 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 31 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.48%), but due to weakness late yesterday, we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgages.

We saw mortgage bonds weaken during afternoon trading yesterday, causing many lenders to revise their rates higher late in the day. If your lender was in the majority, then you should see an improvement in today’s early pricing that erases that upward revision. If your lender did not make a move intraday yesterday, then you should see no change in this morning’s rates as today’s strength offsets the weakness from late yesterday.

Today’s only relevant economic data was June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.7% increase in new orders for big-ticket products that exceeded forecasts of a 0.3% increase by a relatively minor margin considering the normal volatility in this data. A secondary reading that tracks new orders excluding more pricey and volatile transportation items, such as airplanes, showed a 0.8% increase when analysts were calling for a 0.7% rise. There were some secondary readings that showed downward revisions to May’s data, but I think a good portion of today’s move in bonds is more a result of stock selling than anything else.

Next week brings us the release of a large amount of economic data and other events that may affect mortgage rates, including three of the most influential reports we get regularly. In addition to the heavy data and a couple of potentially relevant Treasury auctions, there is also another FOMC meeting set for next week. None of them are set for Monday, but we have multiple items scheduled every other day. There is little doubt that we will see a very active week in the financial and mortgage markets. Look for details on next week’s schedule in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 24, 2014

Thursday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory even though stocks are flat. Stocks are in positive ground during early trading but not by much. The Dow is currently up 14 points while the Nasdaq has gained 4 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (2.51%), which with yesterday’s afternoon weakness should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point if comparing to Wednesday’s morning pricing.

The first of this morning’s two pieces of economic data was last week’s unemployment numbers at 8:30 AM ET. They revealed some surprising results with only 284,000 new claims for unemployment benefits filed last week. This was well below the previous week’s revised 303,000 initial claims and the 308,000 that was expected. It also was the lowest number since February 2006, indicating that the employment sector was stronger last week than many had thought. This data usually doesn’t have much of an impact on rates because it is only a weekly snapshot, but this was enough of a variance to help push this morning’s mortgage rates higher.

June’s New Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET, also showing some surprising results. The Commerce Department announced that sales of newly constructed homes fell 8.1% from May’s revised total. This was a larger monthly decline than was expected, making the data positive for bonds and mortgage rates. Even more newsworthy was a sizable downward revision to May’s sales with no explanation. This means that the new home portion of the housing sector was actually pretty weak in May and did not rebound last month.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of 0.3% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates because it would point towards economic strength. If it reveals a large decline in new orders, mortgage rates should move lower. It should be noted though that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not affect the markets or mortgage rates.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-July 23,2014

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending yesterday afternoon’s upward move. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq up 21 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 which with yesterday’s late move should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over Tuesday’s morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance set for release or otherwise scheduled for today. Look for stock movement to drive bond trading and be the cause if there is an intra-day revision in mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, mortgage rates should follow suit. If stocks move higher later today, bonds will likely weaken, possibly leading to an upward change in rates this afternoon.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data for the markets to digest, but neither is considered to be highly important or likely to cause a noticeable move in rates. The first is the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show that 308,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week’s 302,000. The higher the number of initial claims, the better the news it is for the bond and mortgage markets because rising claims indicates a softening employment sector. However, since this is a weekly report instead of a monthly or quarterly tracking period, it usually takes a wide variance from forecasts for the data to influence mortgage rates.

June’s New Home Sales report will be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Commerce Department report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength. Analysts are expecting it to show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the new home portion of the housing sector weakened last month. That would be considered favorable news for bonds, but since this data tracks only a small percentage of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Yesterday’s Existing Home Sales report covers most of the home sales in the U.S.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trend-July 22,2014

Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with this morning’s economic data showing mixed results and stock posting early gains. The Dow is currently up 66 points while the Nasdaq has gained 34 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.49%), which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data. The overall reading matched forecasts and the core reading was slightly lower than expected, meaning inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy remained subdued last month. That makes the data slightly favorable for the bond and mortgage markets.

The National Association of Realtors announced late this morning that home resales rose 2.6% in June, to their highest level in 8 months. That was a bit stronger than forecasts but not enough of a margin to cause much concern in the bond market. Therefore, we can consider the data to be slightly negative for bonds because it hints at economic growth.

Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled that will likely influence mortgage rates. This will leave the recent geopolitical events and stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing tomorrow. Unless we see a significant rally or selling in stocks, I am expecting mortgage rates to remain fairly calm tomorrow.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Trends-July 21,2014

This week brings us only four pieces of economic data that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. We are also still in corporate earnings season, so any surprises in those releases could affect stock and bond trading, leading to changes in mortgage rates. There is mortgage rate-relevant data set to be posted three of the five days this week.

The week’s activities begin early Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a mirror of last week’s PPI with the exception that this report measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading because it gives us a more stable measure of inflation as it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Higher than expected readings could raise future inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher, while readings that fall short of forecasts should lead to lower rates early Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors will post June’s Existing Home Sales figures late Tuesday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales from May’s totals. A drop in sales would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult. However, unless this data varies greatly from forecasts it probably will lead to only a minor change in mortgage rates.

Wednesday has nothing of importance scheduled that will likely influence mortgage rates. Thursday’s sole economic report is June’s New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. This Commerce Department report gives us another measurement of housing sector strength. Analysts are expecting it to show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the new home portion of the housing sector weakened last month. That would be considered favorable news for bonds, but since this data tracks only a small percentage of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. The Existing Home Sales report covers most of the home sales in the U.S.

The Commerce Department will post June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Current forecasts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of 0.3% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A much stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning because it would point towards economic strength. If it reveals a large decline in new orders, mortgage rates should move lower. It should be noted though that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not move the markets or mortgage rates.

Overall, Tuesday will likely be the most active day for mortgage rates although Friday’s report is the single most important. Wednesday is the best candidate for calmest day with nothing of importance scheduled. Tomorrow is also light but weekend events in the geopolitical arena could make it a fairly active day. With those unpredictable issues and the uncertainty of corporate earnings, we could see noticeable moves in rates multiple days this week with a decent chance of intraday revisions.