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Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 28, 2014

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory even though stocks are showing improvements from Wednesday’s close. The Dow is currently up 53 points while the Nasdaq has gained 15 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (2.21%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. This morning’s bond gains aren’t surprising considering it is somewhat of an unofficial holiday in the markets. Many traders are still home for the long weekend, creating lighter volume and magnified moves due to the thin trading volume. Accordingly, minor bond gains or losses in this atmosphere isn’t anything worth getting optimistic or too concerned about and is not a reflection of longer-term trends.

The financial and mortgage markets were closed yesterday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The stock markets are expected to close at 1:00 PM ET today while bonds will wrap up the week at 2:00 PM ET. Therefore, if we see an intraday revision in rates today, it will likely come during early afternoon hours.

Next week is pretty busy in terms of economic reports scheduled for release that may impact mortgage rates. It starts with November’s ISM Index late Monday morning and includes the almighty monthly Employment report next Friday. It is likely to be an active week for mortgage rates, so look for details on the upcoming week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 26, 2014

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a round of favorable economic reports. The stock markets are mixed but fairly calm with the Dow down 12 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.23%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point over Tuesday’s morning pricing.

Part of this morning’s improvement in rates comes as a result of strength in bonds late yesterday. The bond market strengthened after the results of yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note sale were posted. Most of the benchmarks that we use to gauge investor demand in the sale showed a high level of interest. The strong auction in those securities helped boost the broader bond market during afternoon trading and caused a few lenders to improve rates. That helps us to be optimistic about today’s 7-year Note sale. If we see similar demand levels in this auction, we could see bonds extend this morning’s gains and mortgage rates revise slightly lower later today. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction should come during early and mid-afternoon hours.

This morning had four monthly economic reports and last week’s unemployment figures released. The most important of the bunch was October’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced that new orders for big-ticket products rose 0.4% last month, exceeding forecasts of a 0.6% decline. The headline number appears to be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, but this data is known to be volatile, so the variance from forecasts was not as much of a surprise as it would have been in other reports. Also, a secondary reading that excludes more volatile and pricey orders for transportation-related products such as airplanes showed a decline of 0.9% when analysts were expecting to see a 0.5% increase. This means the more reliable data indicated a much weaker manufacturing sector than many had thought. Accordingly, even though the headline number was bad news, we can consider the data favorable for mortgage rates.

Also early this morning was October’s Personal Income and Outlays data that showed a 0.2% increase in both the income and spending readings. Both were slightly softer than predictions, meaning consumers had less money to spend than expected and actually spent less than thought. Because consumer spending makes up such a significant part of our economy, we can consider the data good news for the bond and mortgage markets.

Last week’s unemployment figures revealed that 313,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was an unexpected increase from the previous week’s revised 292,000 initial claims. Analysts were predicting a small decline in the number of new claims, meaning the employment sector was a little softer last week than the previous week. That makes the report slightly good news for mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot, so its impact on rates is usually minimal.

There were two reports released late this morning. The first was the revised November reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 88.8, which was a decline from the preliminary reading of 89.4. Market participants were calling for a small increase in sentiment, meaning consumers were more optimistic about their financial situations than previously estimated. The unexpected decline is good news because waning confidence usually means consumer spending will slow in the near future, limiting economic growth.

October’s New Home Sales report finished this week’s economic calendar at 10:00 AM ET today. It revealed that sales of newly constructed homes rose slightly last month. The slight increase from September’s sales was in line with forecasts, although a downward revision to the number of sales in September means the new home portion of the housing sector was not as strong as many had thought. And that allows us to consider the data slightly favorable for mortgage rates.

The financial and mortgage markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close today, but the stock and bond markets will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home and there is nothing of importance scheduled to be released. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

We would like to take this opportunity to wish you and yours a safe and wonderful holiday!

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 25, 2014

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly following the release of mixed economic data and a mixed open in stocks. The Dow is currently down 13 points while the Nasdaq has gained 8 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.29%), which may improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point. However, most of that improvement is from strength late yesterday and not gains this morning.

There were two pieces of economic data released this morning. The first was the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. It came in with a 3.9% annual rate of growth that exceeded forecasts. Analysts were expecting to see a downward revision from the initial estimate of 3.5%, not an upward change. This means the economy was stronger during the 3rd quarter than many had thought, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the morning was November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. It gave us favorable results that helped offset the GDP news. The Conference Board announced that November’s reading fell to 88.7 from October’s revised 94.1. This means that surveyed consumers were not nearly as optimistic about their own financial and employment situations as analysts were expecting. That is good news for bonds because waning confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future, limiting economic growth.

We also have today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction to watch. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon hours. Strong investor demand in these sales usually makes bonds more attractive to investors and brings more funds into the broader bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to bond weakness and possibly a small upward revision to mortgage rates later today. We then get to repeat this tomorrow with the 7-year Note sale.

Tomorrow has four economic reports being released that may affect mortgage rates. The first is October’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last three or more years, such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. This data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so sizable swings from the previous month are fairly normal. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in new orders. A larger than expected drop would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness. However, we need to see a sizable variance from forecasts for the markets to have a noticeable reaction due to the usual volatility in the data.

October’s Personal Income and Outlays data is the second report of the day. This data measures consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits and is important because consumer spending is such a large part of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.4% and that spending increased 0.3%. Weaker than expected readings would mean consumers had less money to spend and were spending less than thought. That would be favorable news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. As with today’s CCI, it will give us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to the preliminary reading of 89.4. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted 90.0, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates tomorrow.

October’s New Home Sales report will close out the week’s economic calendar at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. It will give us an indication of housing sector strength, but is the week’s least important release. Analysts are expecting to see little change between September and October’s sales of newly constructed homes. It will take a large change in sales for this data to influence mortgage rates, partly because this report tracks such a small portion of all home sales.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 24, 2014

Monday’s bond market has opened the week in negative territory. Stocks are showing minor gains with the Dow up 17 points and the Nasdaq up 26 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.32%), but I don’t believe is enough to cause much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Friday’s morning levels.

There is nothing scheduled for release today that is relevant to mortgage rates. However, there are six reports and two Treasury auctions scheduled over the remainder of this holiday-shortened week. And all of the week’s data is being posted over only two days, partly due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Tomorrow morning kicks off the week’s activities with the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show a small downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of growth. The GDP measures the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 3.3%, meaning that there was a little less economic activity during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because strengthening economic growth hurts bond prices and mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released by the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are gaining confidence in their own financial and employment situations, analysts believe that they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic growth. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and rapid economic growth makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in confidence from last month’s level, meaning surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. A weaker reading than the 96.0 that is expected would be good news for mortgage rates, while a stronger reading could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

In addition to the two economic reports, tomorrow also has the first of two relatively important Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. However, strong investor demand usually makes bonds more attractive to investors and brings more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Overall, I am expecting Wednesday to be the busiest day for the bond market and mortgage rates with four of the week’s reports scheduled, but tomorrow is likely to be pretty active also. The financial markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will be open Friday but close early. Friday will likely be the calmest day of the week as many traders will be home for the long weekend rather than in the office working.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 23, 2014

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of six relevant economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that have the potential to affect rates. All of the week’s data is being posted over only two days, partly due to the Thanksgiving holiday, so the middle part of the week should be the most interesting for mortgage shoppers.

The week’s data starts early Tuesday morning when the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is posted at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show a small downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of growth. The GDP measures the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 3.3%, meaning that there was a little less economic activity during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because strengthening economic growth hurts bond prices and mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released late Tuesday morning by the Conference Board, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer’s confidence in their own financial and employment situation is strong, analysts believe that they are more apt to make larger purchases, fueling economic growth. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in confidence from last month’s level, meaning surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. A weaker reading than the 96.0 that is expected would be good news for mortgage rates, while a stronger reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

Wednesday has the remaining four economic reports that we need to be concerned with. The first is October’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last three or more years, such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. This data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so sizable swings from the previous month are fairly normal. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in new orders. A larger than expected drop would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness. However, we need to see a sizable variance from forecasts for the markets to have a noticeable reaction due to the usual volatility in the data.

October’s Personal Income and Outlays data is the second report of the day. This data measures consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits and is important because consumer spending is such a large part of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.4% and that spending increased 0.3%. Weaker than expected readings would mean consumers had less money to spend and were spending less than thought. That would be favorable news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted just before 10:00 AM ET Wednesday morning. As with Tuesday’s CCI, it will give us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to the preliminary reading of 89.4. kUnless we see a significant variance from the forecasted 89.9, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

October’s New Home Sales report will close out the week’s economic calendar. It will give us an indication of housing sector strength, but is the week’s least important release. Analysts are expecting to see little change between September and October’s sales of newly constructed homes. It will take a large change in sales for this data to influence mortgage rates, partly because this report tracks such a small portion of all home sales.

In addition to this week’s economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes Tuesday and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. However, strong investor demand usually make bonds more attractive to investors and brings more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close Wednesday ahead of the holiday, but the stock and bond markets will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

Overall, I am expecting Wednesday to be the busiest day for the bond market and mortgage rates with four of the week’s reports scheduled, but Tuesday is likely to be pretty active also with the most important release scheduled (Durable Goods). There is nothing of importance scheduled for tomorrow, but Friday will likely be the calmest day of the week as many traders will be home for the long weekend rather than in the office working.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 21, 2014

Friday’s bond market has opened up slightly even though stocks appear willing to close the week with strong gains. The major stock indexes are in rally mode with the Dow up 130 points and the Nasdaq up 31 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.32%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today has nothing scheduled for release that is likely to influence bonds or mortgage rates. It is interesting that bonds are flat for the most part when stocks are showing sizable gains. That means we can’t look towards stocks for bond and mortgage rate direction today. The good news is that if stocks do extend current gains, we won’t necessarily see pressure build in bonds that could cause an upward change in rates this afternoon.

Next week has a large handful of economic reports scheduled for release in addition to a couple of potentially relevant Treasury auctions. Some of the data is considered to be pretty important but none are known as key reports that are likely to be a market mover. None of the reports are scheduled for Monday, so we can expect weekend news to have the biggest influence on Monday’s bond trading and mortgage pricing.

It is worth noting that it is going to be a holiday-shortened week with only 3 ½ trading days. With nothing set for Monday, that leaves quite a bit of economic news and other events to be posted over only two trading days. Therefore, we can expect to see a pretty active couple of days in the markets and mortgage rates. Look for details on next week’s schedule in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends-November 20, 2014

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a mixed open in stocks and relatively unfavorable economic data. The Dow is currently down 27 points while the Nasdaq is up 12 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.34%), but due to some weakness late yesterday we should see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Wednesday’s morning pricing.

There were four economic reports posted this morning but only one of them was considered to be key or highly important to the markets. The first, October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), was the most important of them. The Labor Department reported at 8:30 AM ET that the overall CPI reading was unchanged from September’s level while the more important core data rose 0.2%. Both readings exceeded forecasts by 0.1%, meaning inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were slightly stronger than analysts were expecting. That makes the data slightly negative for mortgage rates.

Last week’s unemployment figures were also posted early this morning. They revealed that 291,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week’s revised 293,000 initial claims. The weekly decline was smaller than expected, but the number of claims ends up higher than forecasted because of the upward revision to the previous week. Therefore, we should consider the news neutral to slightly positive for mortgage rates.

The third report of the morning came from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM. They announced that home resales rose last month to their highest level since September 2013. The 1.5% increase was stronger than the no change that was expected, but not enough of a variance to cause much concern in the bond market. The increase in sales points to a slight increase in housing sector strength, meaning the data is slightly negative for mortgage rates.

The final report of the week came from the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET. They said their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for October rose 0.9%. That was a larger increase than analysts were expecting. This means the data is predicting a pretty rapid rate of economic growth over the next several months. Accordingly, we need to consider the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this isn’t a highly influential report and has had a minimal impact on this morning’s rates.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release tomorrow, so we will be looking towards stock movement and overseas economic news for mortgage rate direction. If stocks show solid gains, we can expect bonds to move into negative ground and mortgage rates to move a little higher. On the other hand, stock weakness should help boost bonds and possibly improve mortgage pricing tomorrow.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 19, 2014

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite early weakness in stocks and mixed economic news. The Dow is currently down 38 points while the Nasdaq has lost 41 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.34%), which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s only economic data was October’s Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department reported that new home construction starts fell 2.8% last month, falling short of expectations. That is a good sign because it hints at housing sector weakness, not growth. However, a secondary reading that tracks new permits issued and gives us an indication of future construction starts exceeded forecasts. That changed the data from favorable for mortgage rates to neutral.

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be posted later today. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy, particularly when the first rate increase will come. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during afternoon trading. This release is one of those that may cause some volatility in the markets after they are posted, or could be a non-factor. If they show anything surprising, we may see some movement in rates this afternoon.

Tomorrow actually has four reports scheduled that have the potential to affect mortgage rates. The first is the most important of the three. That is October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Labor Department at 8:30 AM ET. The CPI measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the more important reports the bond market sees each month. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising at the consumer level, the bond market will probably react negatively and cause mortgage rates to move higher. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% decline in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data.

Also at 8:30 AM ET will be the weekly unemployment update. It is expected to show that 285,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week’s 290,000. The higher the number of initial claims, the better the news it is for the bond and mortgage markets because rising claims indicates a softening employment sector. However, since this is a weekly report instead of a monthly or quarterly tracking period, it usually takes a wide variance from forecasts for the data to influence mortgage rates.

The third report of the morning will be October’s Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales in the U.S. This report is expected to show little change, meaning the housing sector was flat last month. That would be relatively good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing, but unless it shows a significant surprise, it will likely not have a major impact on mortgage rates.

The final report of the week will come from the Conference Board, also at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow, when they release their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for October. This is a moderately important report that attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.6% increase, meaning economic activity will likely rise fairly quickly over the next couple of months. Generally speaking, this would be bad news for bonds. However, since this data is considered only moderately important, its results need to miss forecasts by a wide margin from forecasts for it to affect mortgage rates.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 18, 2014

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory even though this morning’s key inflation data gave us unfavorable results. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 22 points while the Nasdaq has gained 23 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.32%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.2% increase in the overall reading and a 0.4% rise in the core data. Both readings exceeded forecasts of -0.2% and +0.1% respectively, indicating inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy are stronger than many had thought. Because bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions with low inflation, we should consider this data negative for the bond and mortgage markets. Fortunately though, the news has drawn little reaction during early trading.

Tomorrow morning has one economic report that may have an impact on mortgage rates. That will be October’s Housing Starts at 8:30 AM tomorrow. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not cause a noticeable in mortgage rates. I don’t expect this month’s version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts. It is expected to show an increase in starts of new homes, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector strengthened last month.

Also worth noting is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting tomorrow afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy, particularly when the first rate increase will come. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during afternoon trading. This release is one of those that may cause some volatility in the markets after they are posted, or could be a non-factor. If they show anything surprising, we may see some movement in rates Wednesday afternoon, but it is more likely there will be little reaction.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rate Trends- November 17, 2014

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite some favorable economic news and a soft open in stocks. The major stock indexes are showing fairly minor losses with the Dow down 4 points and the Nasdaq down 22 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.33%), but I don’t believe we will see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage pricing.

October’s Industrial Production data was today’s only economic news. It showed that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities fell 0.1% last month. This was weaker than the 0.2% increase that was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector was softer than many had thought. That makes the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but since this report is considered to be only moderately important to the markets, we have seen little reaction to it.

The rest of the week has five more economic reports that are relevant to mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. A couple of the reports are considered highly important to the markets, meaning we could see noticeable movement in rates more than one day. This is especially true if stocks make a noticeable move higher or lower any particular day.

Tomorrow’s only report is October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET, which is one of the two key inflation readings on tap this week. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Signs of rapidly rising inflation make long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors and leads to higher mortgage rates. The overall reading is expected to show a 0.2% decline from September’s level while the core data is expected to rise 0.1%. Weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates, while a larger than forecasted increase in the core reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Tuesday morning.

Overall, the most active day of the week will probably be Thursday with three reports being posted, one of which is the most important of the six scheduled. Wednesday afternoon also has the potential to be volatile if the FOMC minutes reveal a significant surprise. The best candidate for calmest day in rates is Friday. With data set for release four of the five days, it could end up being another active week for mortgage rates. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.