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Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 21, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly with stocks posting minor gains during early trading and today’s economic data showing no surprises. The Dow is currently up 34 points and the Nasdaq is up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.70%), but due to strong selling late Thursday we should still see an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday’s morning pricing.

The Conference Board gave us today’s only relevant data with the release of their March Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a 0.8% increase that indicates a moderate to fairly strong rate of economic growth over the next several months. However, since that pegged forecasts, it has not had a negative impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.

The rest of the week brings us four more pieces of economic data for the markets to digest in addition to two potentially relevant Treasury auctions. March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is also considered to be moderately important to the markets, but can influence mortgage pricing if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Ideally, the bond market would like to see a drop in home resales because a soft housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult. Analysts are expecting to see little change in sales between February and March. The larger the increase, the worse the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, look for a fair amount of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. The single most influential economic report will likely be Thursday’s Durable Goods, but look for a surprise in tomorrow’s housing data to cause movement in rates also. This week is another filled with corporate earnings releases, so we need to watch for stock movement to also affect bond trading and mortgage rates. I am still holding the cautious stance towards rates until the 10-year yield gets closer to 2.80%.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 17, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with no significant economic data set for release and the only minor data showing unfavorable results. The stock markets are calm with the Dow down 14 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.67%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the Fed Beige Book report didn’t reveal any significant surprises since the last update. Economic growth was modest to moderate in most Fed regions. Consumer spending that drives economic growth rose in most regions also, but the increase is being attributed to inclement weather during the period the last report covered. In other words, the data doesn’t mean consumers spent more than expected, just more than during the winter storms. This was an uneventful report for the most part that had little impact on mortgage rates late yesterday.

Last week’s unemployment update was today’s only relevant economic data. It revealed that 304,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up slightly from the previous week’s revised total of 302,000. Since analysts were expecting to see a larger increase and last week’s claims are still near their lowest levels since the fall of 2007, we should consider the data slightly negative for the bond market and mortgage rates. Fortunately this is only a weekly snapshot and its impact on this morning’s trading has been fairly minimal.

The bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow’s Good Friday holiday. Stocks will be open for a full day of trading today. All markets will be closed Friday for the holiday and will reopen Monday morning for regular hours.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 16, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with this morning’s economic data giving us mixed results and stocks in positive ground. The major stock indexes are showing solid gains during early trading with the Dow up 88 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.65%), which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

March’s Housing Starts report was posted early this morning, revealing a 2.8% increase in groundbreakings of new home construction. This indicates some growth in the housing sector but since analysts were expecting to see a rise that was nearly double of what you got, we can consider the data slightly positive for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second report of the morning was March’s Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It showed that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.7% last month that exceeded forecasts of 0.5%. Also, a sizable upward revision to February’s data (0.6% to 1.2%) means that industrial production was stronger than many had thought over the past two months. Because that points towards stronger economic activity, the data is negative for economically sensitive bonds and mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen. She is scheduled to speak to the Economic Club of New York at 12:15 PM ET. Anytime the Fed chairman speaks publicly, market traders listen carefully for any tips on the Fed’s thought process or potential monetary policy moves. Therefore, it is worth watching even though it isn’t considered to be a highly important event.

Later this afternoon, we have the release of the Federal Reserve’s Fed Beige Book report. This report is named simply after the color of its cover but details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region. Since the Fed relies heavily on the contents of this report during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any significant surprises. Generally speaking, signs of strong economic growth or inflation rising from the last update would be considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Slowing economic conditions with little sign of inflationary pressures would be ideal for mortgage rates. The report will be posted at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading.

Tomorrow’s only relevant data is the Labor Department’s weekly unemployment update. They will give us last week’s unemployment numbers early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that 312,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 300,000. The larger the number of initial claims, the better the news it is for the bond market and mortgage pricing because rising claims indicate employment sector weakness.

The bond market will close early tomorrow ahead of the Good Friday and will reopen for regular trading Monday. The stock markets are open for a full day of trading tomorrow but will be closed Friday. It is fairly common to see a little pressure in bonds right before the holiday as investors look to protect themselves over the long holiday. With no major data set for release tomorrow, I would not be surprised to see bonds negative and mortgage rates slightly higher unless stocks decide to go into selling mode.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 11, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Friday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite stronger than expected economic news. Another round of early stock weakness has helped support bond prices this morning. The Dow is currently down 88 points while the Nasdaq has lost 18 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which with yesterday’s afternoon strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over Thursday’s early pricing.

As stocks sank yesterday from where they were when we posted Thursday’s report, bonds strengthened. As the day progressed and the major stock indexes continued their slide, bonds rallied and many lenders posted intraday improvements to their mortgage rates. The Dow eventually closed with a 266 point loss while the Nasdaq lost 129 points. What appeared to be a great day for the bond market and mortgage rates lost a little luster near the end of the day as the bond buying pulled back. Still, it ended up as a good session for bond traders and mortgage shoppers. And if we a similar pattern with stocks today, the downward move in mortgage rates should repeat itself again.

Bonds have made a nice move this week mostly as a result of stock weakness. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is currently at 2.61%, well below the 2.68 that appeared to be a resistance level. This is good news for mortgage shoppers because mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields and there doesn’t appear to be too heavy of a resistance level until we get down to the 2.4% area. My concern though is that this downward move has been triggered by stock losses and not weak results in key economic data. If stocks rebound, we could easily erase the recent flight-to-safety gains. Keep in mind, rates almost always spike higher much quicker than they drop lower. Therefore, enjoy the recent improvement but please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future. If your closing data is set for the next week or two, I highly recommend locking a rate as soon as possible.

The Labor Department gave us the first of this morning’s two economic reports when they posted March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. Their announcement of a 0.5% increase in the overall PPI and a 0.5% rise in the core data is a head-turner. Especially when analysts were expecting to see a 0.1% increase in both readings. Does this mean that inflation is rising rapidly and the bond market should be concerned? Not exactly because recent changes to how the PPI is calculated has made it difficult to predict its results. The sizable increase is certainly worth watching, but fortunately for mortgage rates the variance from forecasts doesn’t seem to be of much concern this morning.

Late this morning, the University of Michigan posted their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. It revealed a reading of 82.6 that was higher than forecasts and its highest level since last July. The increase indicates surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than many had thought. That makes the data negative for the bond and mortgage markets because rising confidence usually means consumers are more apt to spend money and make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, we should consider the results bad news for mortgage rates.

Next week is moderately busy with a small handful of relevant economic reports set for release. It is worth noting though that a couple of those reports are more important than others and it is a holiday-shortened week. One of the more important releases we get each month, Retail Sales, will be posted early Monday morning. It will give us insight into consumer spending activity that fuels economic growth.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 10, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Thursday’s bond market has opened relatively flat despite unfavorable economic news. The stock markets are helping boost bonds with a negative open. The Dow is currently down 8 points while the Nasdaq has lost 23 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.67%), which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting didn’t reveal any significant surprises but did give us some insight into how Fed members voted on different topics during the meeting. One thing they showed was the decision to move away from specific targets, such as the unemployment rate, that would trigger the Fed raising key short-term interest rates. It was the Fed’s stance previously that the unemployment rate and inflation would need to be at set thresholds before they would make a move. The decision change from that to a broader and more vague stance caused volatility in the markets when it was announced following the meeting adjournment. The minutes released yesterday showed that the decision to do so was a strong majority amongst voting members. Not necessarily earth-shattering news, but it does indicate a wide consensus that likely will not be reversed anytime soon. Overall, the minutes didn’t give us anything too conc! erning or joyous and despite that, the bond market strengthened after the minutes were posted.

The only piece of economic data worth watching this morning was last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. This morning’s release showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 300,000 last week from a revised 332,000 of the previous week. This was well below forecasts and the lowest level we have seen in almost 7 years. That indicates employment sector strength and makes the data negative for the bond market and mortgage rates. Fortunately mortgage shoppers though, this is only a weekly report and bond traders appear to have shrugged off the news.

We also have today’s 30-year Bond auction results that may influence the broader bond market and possibly mortgage rates later today. Yesterday’s 10-year auction was met with an average or mediocre level of interest from investors. That doesn’t give us much to be optimistic about in today’s sale. If there was a strong demand for the securities, we could see bond prices move higher and mortgage rates revise lower this afternoon. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will likely come during early afternoon trading.

Tomorrow does have some important economic data scheduled for release. The Labor Department will start the day by posting March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices since it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, leading to higher mortgage rates. A good sized decline in prices would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data.

The final release of the week is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 AM ET tomorrow. Their consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial or employment situations, they probably will delay making that purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Good news would be a sizable decline from March’s 80.0 reading. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of approximately 81.0.

 

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 9, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as traders prepare for today’s debt sale. The stock markets are calm but slightly in positive ground with the Dow up 26 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, but due to strength in trading late yesterday we should still see an improvement of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning’s rates if comparing to Tuesday’s early pricing.

There is no relevant economic data being posted this morning that is likely to influence mortgage rates. Look for stock movement to drive bond trading and mortgage rates until we get to this afternoon’s activities. If the major stock indexes move higher, the safe bet would be bond weakness and a potential increase in rates. On the other hand, stock selling will probably lead to bond buying and slightly lower mortgage rates.

We have two relevant events taking place this afternoon that are worth watching. The first are the results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand for the securities was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If interest was weak, bonds will probably move lower early this afternoon, pushing yields and mortgage pricing higher. Today’s sale will be followed by a 30-year Bond auction tomorrow with results also being posted at 1:00 PM.

The second event of the day is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking at them closely as they give us insight to the Fed’s current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release, particularly about inflation, economic conditions or their current bond buying program, could cause afternoon volatility in the markets tomorrow and possible changes in mortgage pricing. This is one of those releases that could create a sizable move in the financial and mortgage markets or completely be a non-factor.

Tomorrow’s only worthwhile economic data is the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show that 325,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a slight decline from the previous week’s 326,000 new claims, indicating that the employment sector was flat. Ideally, bond traders would prefer to see a sizable increase in claims, so the larger the number, the better the news it is for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, this is only a narrow weekly snapshot of the sector. Therefore, it usually takes a wide variance from forecasts for the data to move mortgage pricing.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 7, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory with no economic data to drive trading and stocks starting the week in negative territory. The major stock indexes are showing moderate losses with the Dow down 72 points and the Nasdaq down 11 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point from Friday’s level.

There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates scheduled for release today. This means we can look toward stocks for bond and mortgage rate direction. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, bonds and mortgage rates will probably follow suit. If stocks fall further, bond prices may rise and mortgage rates could move lower this afternoon.

The rest of the week brings us the release of only two monthly economic reports that are relevant to mortgage rates, in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that have the potential to be influential on the bond market and mortgage pricing. Corporate earnings season also starts, which could be instrumental in driving stock prices significantly higher or lower. Since stock movement often affects bond trading, we will also be watching the earnings releases from some of the bigger names and bellwethers to help gauge bond direction and mortgage rates movement.

The first events of the week will come Wednesday afternoon when we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the results of 10-year Treasury auction. We should see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week. Wednesday could be the most active day if the FOMC minutes reveal any surprises. If not, the best bet would be Friday. Tomorrow appears to be the lightest and will probably be the calmest day for mortgage rates. Look for the stock markets to also influence bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week as traders react to the corporate earnings news

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 4, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of this morning’s key economic data. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 35 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us this morning’s major economic news when they posted March’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the unemployment rate remained at 6.7% last month and that 192,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The 6.7% was a little higher than the 6.6% that was forecasted and the payroll number was a little softer than the 200,000 that was expected. Both misses are favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates.

An upward revision to February’s payroll number (175k to 197k) means little change between February’s supposedly weather-skewed data and March’s number. We can take that as a bit more of good news in the data. Overall though, while we have seen a positive reaction in the bond market this morning, the data is more like neutral to the bigger picture. The 197,000 jobs in February and 192,000 last month do point towards a strengthening employment sector. An upward revision to March’s figures next month would strengthen this theory. This morning’s gains may be more of a relief rally that we didn’t get stronger numbers than some were expecting. We can enjoy this morning’s improvements but I suspect they may be short-lived.

Next week is extremely light in terms of the number of economic reports scheduled for release that have a decent chance of affecting mortgage rates. I currently show only two reports and they don’t come until Friday morning. However, we do have the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and two Treasury auctions mid-week that are known to cause changes in mortgage rates. In addition, there are a bunch of speaking engagements by current Fed members that always carry the possibility of influencing the markets and mortgage pricing. Monday’s only event is a Fed speech late morning and the topic is monetary policy and the economy. Therefore, the markets will be watching it closely.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 3, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Thursday’s bond market has opened flat as traders await tomorrow’s big news. The major stock indexes are following suit with the Dow up 19 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close (2.80%), which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates very close to yesterday’s morning pricing.

The first of this morning’s two pieces of economic data was February’s Goods and Services Trade Balance at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed that the U.S. Trade Deficit rose to $43.2 billion in February. That was noticeably higher than the $39.3 billion that was forecasted, but as expected, the news has had little impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.

Also posted early this morning was last week’s unemployment numbers. They showed that 326,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised total of 310,000 initial claims, indicating that the employment sector softened last week. Since weaker employment numbers points toward slower economic growth, we can consider the data slightly favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately for mortgage shoppers, because this data tracks only a single week’s worth of new claims and we have major monthly employment data coming tomorrow morning, we have not seen too much of a reaction to the news.

The biggest news of the week and arguably each month is the monthly Employment report from the Labor Department. They will post March’s report at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, revealing the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. This is an extremely important report to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate slipped from 6.7% to 6.6% and that approximately 200,000 payrolls were added to the economy during the month. A higher unemployment rate and a much smaller than expected payroll number would be good news for bonds and would likely push mortgage rates lower tomorrow because it would indicate weaker than thought conditions in the employment sector of the economy. However, stronger than expected results will probably fuel a stock rally and bond selling that leads to a sizable increase in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

I am expecting to see plenty of volatility in the financial and mortgage markets tomorrow morning. Depending if you are pro or against economic growth, this report will give us some insight into the labor market without the weather-related hurdles or excuses of the previous months. If the numbers are strong, the analysts that said the winter storms did hamper the economy will be able to gloat. On the other hand, if the numbers are weak, those who called the weather just an excuse to hide the true shakiness of the economy will look brilliant. Therefore, I strongly recommend carefully watching the news and markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as I believe we will see a sizable move in mortgage rates tomorrow.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – April 2, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory yet again even though this morning’s economic data gave us mixed results. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 30 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (2.80%), which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The first of this morning’s two report was the ADP Employment report for March. It revealed an increase of 191,000 private-sector jobs last month, falling short of the 200,000 forecast. The increase in payrolls was a healthy number, but since it short of expectations, we can consider the data to be slightly positive for bonds and mortgage pricing. The key and more reliable employment numbers will come from the Labor Department’s monthly release Friday morning.

February’s Factory Orders report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning, revealing a 1.6% increase in new orders for durable and non-durable goods. This was stronger than the 1.1% increase that was expected, indicating stronger manufacturing activity. That makes the data negative for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, this isn’t the cause of this morning’s bond selling. It appears traders are positioning themselves for a strong Employment report Friday.

Tomorrow also has two reports scheduled for release, but neither are expected to have a significant impact on mortgage rates. Both of the reports are considered to be of low importance to the markets. February’s Goods and Services Trade Balance that will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but is not considered to be of high importance to mortgage rates. This report can influence other markets more than bonds and usually has little impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts. It is expected to show a trade deficit of $39.3 billion. Regardless of its results though, I doubt this data will have a noticeable impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

The other data being posted tomorrow is last week’s unemployment numbers. They are expected to show that 320,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from 311,000 of the previous week. Rising initial claims indicates employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.