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Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – January 31, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory due mostly to fairly significant stock selling during early trading. The Dow is currently down almost 200 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 40 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which with yesterday’s afternoon gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday’s morning pricing.

We saw mortgage bonds improve late yesterday, partly as a result of fairly strong 7-year Treasury Note auction. The 5-year Note sale that concluded at 11:30 AM yesterday did not go as well as the 7-year auction did. Bonds worsened right after the 5-year sale results were released but improved after the 1:00 PM announcement on the 7-year auction and closed near their best levels of the day. That caused some lenders to improve rates by approximately .125 of a discount point yesterday afternoon while some may have waited until this morning’s data to reflect that move.

December’s Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET was the first of three reports released this morning. The Commerce Department announced that personal income was unchanged from November to December and personal spending rose 0.4% in that period. Both readings were expected to show a 0.2% increase. This means that income, which gives consumers the ability to spend, was weaker than forecasts but consumers actually spent more than thought. Those mixed results make the data neutral to slightly negative for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second release of the day was the 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that showed a 0.5% increase. Analysts were expecting to see only a 0.4% rise in this index that tracks employer costs for employee wages and benefits. The higher reading technically makes it bad news for mortgage rates. However, this is a minor variance in a moderately important report, so its impact on today’s trading has been minimal.

Late this morning, the University of Michigan revised their Index of Consumer Sentiment for January. The release revealed a reading of 81.2 that was an upward revision from the preliminary reading of 80.4. This means surveyed consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than was thought earlier this month. The increase hints that consumers maybe a little more willing to make a large purchase in the near future than previously predicted. Since consumer spending fuels economic growth, we should consider this data bad news for the bond and mortgage rates, although it also was minor variance in moderately important data. That should limit the impact on today’s mortgage rates.

Next week has fewer economic releases and other events scheduled that may influence mortgage rates, but some of the data is considered highly important to the markets. The week will start Monday with one of those key reports when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posts their manufacturing index for January.

Incline Village Mortgage Rates and Incline Village Home Loans – End of Day – January 30, 2014

Incline Village Home Loans, Incline Village Mortgages, Incline Village Mortgage Rates and Incline Village Home Loan Rates:

Economic news was abundant today with some key reports regarding housing, the labor markets and economic growth. The government reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 rose by 3.0% due in part to a burst in consumer spending and ramped up business investments. The 3.0% is down from the 4.1% recorded in the 3rd quarter of 2013. GDP is measured by the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

The Labor Department reported that Americans filing for first time unemployment insurance rose in the latest week. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 19,000 in the latest week to 348,000 and above the 325,000 expected. The extreme cold weather coupled with the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday could have contributed to the some of the increases. The four week moving average of claims, which irons out seasonal abnormalities, rose 750 to 333,000.

Over in housing Pending Home Sales, contracts signed but not closed, fell by 8.7% in December to its seventh straight monthly decline. The National Association of Realtors said that unusually disruptive weather last month in large stretches of the nation kept potential buyers from looking at homes and making offers. In addition, home prices are rising faster than incomes in addition to a lack of inventory of homes.

 

GDP declines in Q4 2013. Weekly Jobless Claims rise. Pending Home Sales plunge.

 

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The government reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), economic growth, in the fourth quarter of 2013 rose by 3.0% due in part to a burst in consumer spending and ramped up business investments. The Labor Department reported that Americans filing for first time unemployment insurance rose in the latest week. Pending Home Sales, contracts signed but not closed, fell by 8.7% in December to its seventh straight monthly decline.

 

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Economic news was abundant today with some key reports regarding housing, the labor markets and economic growth. The government reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 rose by 3.0% due in part to a burst in consumer spending and ramped up business investments. The 3.0% is down from the 4.1% recorded in the 3rd quarter of 2013. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 19,000 in the latest week to 348,000 and above the 325,000 expected. Over in housing Pending Home Sales, contracts signed but not closed, fell by 8.7% in December to its seventh straight monthly decline.

Lake Tahe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – January 30, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due to early stock strength and unfavorable economic news. The major stock indexes are recovering a good portion of yesterday’s losses of 189 points in the Dow and 46points for the Nasdaq. During early trading this morning, the Dow is currently up 84 points while the Nasdaq has gained 49 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32, which should erase yesterday’s afternoon improvement in mortgage rates. If your lender revised rates lower after the FOMC meeting yesterday, you will likely see a small increase in this morning’s pricing. If they chose to wait until this morning’s opening to reflect the post-FOMC movement, then there should be little change from yesterday’s morning rates.

There were two pieces of economic data posted early this morning. The major release was the initial 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading that showed the economy grew at a 3.2% annual pace during the last three months of 2013. This was a bit stronger than the 3.0% that many analysts had expected to see. Since the news means the economy was stronger than thought and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, we should consider this data negative for mortgage rates but not a crisis. There will be two revisions to this reading over the next two months that could easily put the GDP back to where analysts were predicting. That is why there is no major concern with today’s results.

Also posted this morning were last week’s unemployment figures. The Labor Department announced that 348,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s revised total of 329,000. Since claims were higher than expected and more importantly, an increase from the previous week, the data is good news for the bond and mortgage markets. Unfortunately, this is just a weekly snapshot while the GDP is a major quarterly release. Therefore, the GDP is drawing much more attention this morning than last week’s unemployment claims.

Later today we will get the results of the two Treasury auctions that are taking place. The Fed is auctioning 5-year and 7-year Treasury Notes today. Results of the 5-year Note sale will be posted at 11:30 AM ET while data on the 7-year sale will go up at 1:00 PM ET. The second is the more important of the two because those securities are closer in term to mortgage bonds and will give us a better indication of demand for longer-term debt. If the sales were met with a strong interest from investors, the broader bond market may improve during early afternoon hours. On the other hand, a lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and an upward revision to mortgage rates during afternoon trading.

Tomorrow morning has three pieces of economic data scheduled for release that are relevant to mortgage rates. The first is the most important of the three. That would be December’s Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. It gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits, making it relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.2%, meaning consumers had a little more money to spend in December than they did in November. The spending reading is also expected to rise 0.2%, indicating consumers spent a slightly more last month than the previous month. Larger increases would be good news for the stock markets and could hurt bond prices, driving mortgage rates higher. Smaller than expected increases or declines would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would hint that consumer spending is weaker than thought, limiting overall economic growth.
The second release of the day will be the 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). This index measures employer costs for employee wages and benefits, giving us an indication of the threat of wage inflation. If wages are rising, consumers have more money to spend and businesses usually need to charge more for their products and services. The report is considered moderately important and usually has more of an effect on the bond market than the stock markets. Current forecasts are showing an increase of 0.4%. A lower than expected reading would be favorable to bonds and mortgage rates tomorrow, but unless we see a large variance from forecasts I am not expecting this report to cause much movement in rates.

The final report of the week is the revised reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET. This index is another measurement of consumer confidence that is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. If surveyed consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are more likely to make a larger purchase in the near future. And because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy, any related data is watched fairly closely. I don’t see this data having a significant impact on the markets or mortgage rates unless we see a large revision from the preliminary reading of 80.4.

 

Lake Tahoe Mortgages and Incline Village Home Loan Rates – January 29, 2014

Incline Village Home Loans, Incline Village Mortgages, Incline Village Mortgage Rates and Incline Village Home Loan Rates:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement that the Fed trimmed their current bond buying program by another $10 billion per month. This move surprised few people as many analysts had been predicting the reduction at this meeting. The rest of the post-meeting statement more or less reaffirmed previous statements regarding economic benchmarks that the Fed would like to see. Generally speaking, the meeting results were basically uneventful.

Following the release of the statement at 2:00 PM ET, the bond market initially worsened but has since improved to near its best levels of the day. The stock markets have extended their earlier losses with the Dow down 172 points and the Nasdaq down 47 points. The bond market is currently up 18/32, which should be enough of a move to cause many lenders to improve rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over this morning’s pricing.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data worth watching, one of which is much more important and influential than the other. The big news will be the initial 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading at 8:30 AM ET. It will be the first of three we will get for the 4th quarter. This data is so important because it is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. The GDP itself is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. Its results usually have a major impact on the financial markets and can cause significant changes in mortgage rates. This initial reading will be followed by two revisions, each released approximately one month apart. Last quarter’s first reading, which usually carries the most significance, is expected to show the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.0%. A noticeably weaker reading would be great news for the bond market, questioning the pace of economic growth. That would likely fuel more stock selling ! and a rally in bonds that should push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning. However, a larger than expected increase, indicating the economy was stronger than thought, will likely fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.

The second report of the morning is the weekly unemployment update from the Labor Department. They are expected to announce at 8:30 AM ET that 325,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That would be little change from the previous week’s 326,000 initial claims. The higher the number of new claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims hints at a softening employment sector. It is worth noting though, this data often has little effect on mortgage rates because it is a only a weekly snapshot and not a full month’s worth of data.

Also tomorrow are two relatively important Treasury auctions for the markets to digest. The Fed will auction 5-year and 7-year Treasury Notes tomorrow instead of over two days as they traditionally do. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, the broader bond market may improve during afternoon hours. If they draw a lackluster interest, they could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates mid-afternoon tomorrow.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – January 29, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, mostly as a reaction to early stock selling. The major stock indexes are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 123 points and the Nasdaq down 22 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (2.71%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data being posted this morning. We are seeing typical safe-haven buying in bonds as investors look to limit exposure to the selling in stocks. Last night’s State of the Union address doesn’t appear to be a big influence on the stock markets. The selling seems to be more of a result of concerns about global markets and economic growth than anything else. That has led some investors to seek shelter in bonds, to the benefit of mortgage shoppers.

Whether or not that positive tone in bonds will extend to this afternoon is the big question. This afternoon brings us the adjournment of the FOMC meeting that can easily erase this morning’s bond gains or double them. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rates from the Fed, but traders will be looking for any indication of a change in sentiment about the economy and when a potential move in short-term rates will be made or when the next reduction in their current stimulus programs (QE3) will take place. This will also be current Fed Chairman Bernanke’s last FOMC meeting as chairman with current Vice Chair Janet Yellen taking over as Chairman Feb. 1st, although that shouldn’t affect this meeting’s results. There is a decent possibility of seeing afternoon volatility in the markets today due to the 2:00 PM ET post-meeting statement.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates – January 27, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Monday’s bond market initially opened down slightly but has since moved into positive territory after this morning’s only economic data showed weaker than expected results. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 19 points and the Nasdaq down 32 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which isn’t enough to further improve this morning’s mortgage rates from Friday’s pricing.

The Commerce Department announced at 10:00 AM ET this morning that December’s New Home Sales fell 7.0% from November’s revised levels. That was much weaker than expected, especially since the drop is after a 4% downward revision to November’s sales. This data indicates a softening new home portion of the housing sector, making it favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates because signs of economic weakness make long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

Tomorrow has two pieces of fairly important data scheduled. The first is December’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET that helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. These are also known as big-ticket items and include things such appliances, electronics and airplanes. The data is known to be quite volatile from month- to-month, but is currently expected to show an increase in orders of approximately 2.1%. A smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but a slight variance likely will have little impact on tomorrow’s mortgage pricing because of the large swings that are common in the data. Bond traders would prefer to see a large decline that would indicate economic weakness.

January’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report is considered to be of moderate to high importance to the bond market and therefore can move mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. It is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which is important because waning confidence in their own financial situations usually means that consumers are less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, market participants are very attentive to related data. Analysts are expecting to see a drop from December’s reading, indicating consumer confidence was weaker than last month. A reading much smaller than the expected 77.5 would be ideal for the bond market and mortgage rates. A higher reading than forecasts would hint that consumers are more likely to spend in the immediate future, fueling economic growth and possibly pushing mortgage pricing higher.

Overall, it is difficult to label any particular day this week as the most important for mortgage rates with so much going on. Wednesday is the only day with no economic data being posted, but it does have the FOMC meeting adjournment that is always big news. Thursday’s initial GDP reading is highly important but tomorrow and Friday have multiple reports set for release that can influence mortgage rates. And stocks can affect bond trading and mortgage pricing any day, especially if they return to selling mode as we saw late last week.

Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – January 26, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

This week is packed with economic reports and other events that are relevant to bond trading and mortgage rates. There are seven pieces of monthly or quarterly economic data scheduled with at least one being posted four of five days. In addition to those reports, there is also a two-day FOMC meeting and a couple of Treasury auctions that have the potential to affect bond trading enough to slightly move rates.

The week’s calendar kicks off with December’s New Home Sales report late tomorrow morning. It is considered to be the sister release to last week’s Existing Home Sales, giving us a small snapshot of housing sector strength. It tracks a much smaller portion of home sales than last week’s report did and is forecasted to show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes. However, this data is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

Tuesday has two pieces of fairly important data scheduled. The first is December’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET that helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. These are also known as big-ticket items and include things such appliances, electronics and airplanes. The data is known to be quite volatile from month- to-month, but is currently expected to show an increase in orders of approximately 2.1%. A smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but a slight variance likely will have little impact on Tuesday’s mortgage pricing because of the large swings that are common in the data. Bond traders would prefer to see a large decline that would indicate economic weakness.

January’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This report is considered to be of moderate to high importance to the bond market and therefore can move mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. It is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which is important because waning confidence in their own financial situations usually means that consumers are less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, market participants are very attentive to related data. Analysts are expecting to see a drop from December’s reading, indicating consumer confidence was weaker than last month. A reading much smaller than the expected 77.5 would be ideal for the bond market and mortgage rates. A higher reading than forecasts would hint that consumers are more likely to spend in the immediate future, fueling economic growth and possibly pushing mortgage pricing higher Tuesday.

This year’s first FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday will adjourn Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rates, but as is often the case, traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s change in sentiment about the economy and when a potential change to short-term rates will be made or another adjustment to their current stimulus programs. This will also be current Fed Chairman Bernanke’s last FOMC meeting as chairman with current Vice Chair Janet Yellen taking over as Chairman Feb. 1st, although that shouldn’t affect this meeting’s results. There is a decent possibility of seeing afternoon volatility in the markets Wednesday due to the 2:00 PM ET post-meeting statement.

Thursday has what is arguably the single most important economic report that we see regularly. This would be the initial quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. Thursday’s release is the first of three we will get for the 4th quarter. This data is so important because it is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. The GDP itself is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. Its results usually have a major impact on the financial markets and can cause significant changes in mortgage rates. This initial reading will be followed by two revisions, each released approximately one month apart. Last quarter’s first reading, which usually carries the most significance, is expected to show the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.0%. A noticeably weaker reading would be great news for the bond market, questioning the pace of economic growth. That would likely fuel stock selling and a rally in bonds that should push mortgage r! ates lower Thursday morning. However, a larger than expected increase, indicating the economy was stronger than thought, will likely fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.

Also Thursday, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions for the markets to digest. The Fed will auction 5-year and 7-year Treasury Notes Thursday instead of over two days as they traditionally do. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, the broader bond market may improve during afternoon hours. If they draw a lackluster interest, they could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates mid-afternoon Thursday.

Friday has the remaining three reports, starting with December’s Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET Friday morning. It gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits, making it relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.2% meaning consumers had a little more money to spend in December than they did in November. The spending reading is also expected to rise 0.2%, indicating consumers spent a slightly more last month than the previous month. Larger increases would be good news for the stock markets and could hurt bond prices, driving mortgage rates higher. Smaller than expected increases or declines would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would hint that consumer spending is weaker than thought, limiting economic growth.

The second release of the day will be the 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). This index measures employer costs for employee wages and benefits, giving us an indication of the threat of wage inflation. If wages are rising, consumers have more money to spend and businesses usually need to charge more for their products and services. The report is considered moderately important and usually has more of an effect on the bond market than the stock markets. Current forecasts are showing an increase of 0.4%. A lower than expected reading would be favorable to bonds and mortgage rates Friday, but unless we see a large variance from forecasts I am not expecting this report to cause much movement in rates.

The final report of the week is the revised reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET Friday. This index is another measurement of consumer confidence that is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. I don’t see this data having much of an impact on the markets or mortgage rates unless we see a large revision from the preliminary reading of 80.4.

Overall, it is difficult to label any particular day this week as the most important for mortgage rates with so much going on. Wednesday is the only day with no economic data being posted, but it does have the FOMC meeting adjournment that is always big news. Thursday’s GDP report is highly important but Tuesday and Friday have multiple reports set for release that can influence mortgage rates. And stocks can affect bond trading and mortgage pricing any day, especially if they extend their significant slide from late last week.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Taheo Mortgage Loan Rates – January 24, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again following another round of stock selling that has helped drawn funds into bonds. After falling 176 points yesterday, the Dow is currently down another 80 points while the Nasdaq has lost 32 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which with late strength yesterday should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday’s morning pricing.

Yesterday’s afternoon strength pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield below the 2.80% that we were watching. It closed at 2.78% yesterday and this morning’s gains have moved it down to 2.74%. That is well below the resistance level that we had to break before seeing more improvements to mortgage rates. It came as a result of stock losses over the two days, both here and in the international markets. Stocks turned south when overseas economic data raised concerns about global economic growth. As stocks moved lower in response to that news, investors shifted funds into bonds as a safe-haven from the volatility.

While that is good news for mortgage shoppers today, the shift to safety often is only a temporary move. If stocks stabilize and rebound, we will likely see those bond gains reverse course as funds shift back into stocks. And as we have seen so many times in the past, rates tend to move higher much quicker than they move lower. In other words, enjoy the improvement in mortgage rates over the past two days, but please proceed cautiously. If the negative tone in stocks does not extend into next week’s trading, we could very well see a negative swing in bonds that would lead to a quick move higher in mortgage rates.

Next week brings us much more to watch than we had this week. There is relevant economic data or other events scheduled each day of the week, including Monday when December’s New Home Sales report will be released. Besides the large list of economic releases, there are also a couple Treasury auctions to be concerned with along with a two-day FOMC meeting that will adjourn mid-week.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – January 23, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a batch of uneventful economic data and sharp losses in stocks. The stock markets are in selling mode during early trading with the Dow down 180 points and the Nasdaq down 42 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32 (2.80%), but unfortunately, weakness in bond trading late yesterday will prevent a sizable improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates. If comparing to yesterday’s morning pricing, you should see a slight improvement in this morning’s pricing.

This morning had three pieces of economic data for the markets to digest, but none of them showed a significant surprise that drew much attention. The Labor Department started it with last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They announced that 326,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up slightly from the previous week’s revised total of 325,000. Analysts were expecting to see an increase of 1,000 initial claims, so this morning’s announcement put results right with forecasts. Therefore, it has had practically no impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.

The National Association of Realtors said late this morning that December’s Existing Home Sales rose slightly. The increase wasn’t expected, but it was from a lower level of sales in November than previously thought. Even with the downward revision to November’s sales, the December increase showed home resales were at a lower level than many analysts were predicting. That makes the data slightly favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this was a minor variance from forecasts and also had little influence on this morning’s rates.

December’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was the third report of the day and the final release of the week. The Conference Board said at 10:00 AM ET that their LEI rose 0.1% last month, falling just short of forecasts. That means the indicators are pointing to slightly weaker economic growth than expected over the next several months. Because weaker economic conditions make mortgage bonds more attractive to investors, this should be considered neutral-to-slightly favorable news for mortgage shoppers.

There is nothing of importance set for release tomorrow, so expect stock trading to drive bond movement and mortgage rates. If today’s stock selling extends into tomorrow, we could see further gains in bonds that push mortgage rates lower. On the other hand, a rebound in the major stock indexes could fuel bond selling that came as a result of today’s stock weakness.

 

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – January 22, 2014

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with nothing to drive trading again today. Even the major stock indexes are having little influence on bond trading with the Dow down 24 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

As is the case with most of this week, today has nothing scheduled that is of any concern to the bond or mortgage markets. Any intra-day revision to mortgage rates will likely have come from a noticeable move in stocks. Stock strength usually translates into bond selling and higher mortgage rates while stock selling makes bonds more attractive to investors. The buying of bonds pushes yields lower and since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, this would be good news for mortgage shoppers.

Tomorrow has all of this week’s economic data that is even remotely relevant to mortgage rates. There are actually three pieces of data being posted tomorrow, but the first is only the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. The Labor Department is expected to announce that 327,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a slight change from the previous week’s total of 326,000, assuming there is not a revision to that estimate. The higher the number of initial filings, the better the news it is for the bond market and mortgage rates because rising claims indicates a softening employment sector. However, since this report tracks a only a single week’s worth of new claims, it usually requires a wide variance from forecasts for it to have a noticeable impact on mortgage pricing.

The week’s remaining two pieces of data will be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow by private-sector organizations. The first of those two is December’s Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors. This data will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage demand by tracking home resales in the U.S. It is expected to show little change in sales from November’s level, meaning the housing sector was flat last month. Ideally, bond traders would like to see a decline in sales that would point toward housing sector weakness because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult. However, as long we don’t see a significant surprise in its results, it shouldn’t have a noticeable impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

December’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is the final report of the week. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group compiles the data and releases this report. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next several months, but it is not considered to be of high importance to the financial and mortgage markets. Tomorrow’s release is expected to show a 0.2% increase, meaning the indicators are predicting a modest increase in economic activity this spring. Theoretically, that would be fairly good news for mortgage rates because long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds tend to do better in weaker economic conditions. But as long as we don’t see a much stronger than predicted increase, I don’t think this data will have much of an influence on mortgage pricing either.