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Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates and Incline Village Mortgage Loans – September 30, 2013

Incline Village Home Loans, Incline Village Home Loan Rates, Incline Village Mortgage Rates, Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates, and Incline Village Mortgage Loans:

The following factors affected bond and mortgage yields today:

  • The House to seek spending bill with new Obamacare provision. But as of now it looks like a shutdown will happen tonight at 12:00am ET.
  • Senate approves government funding bill – the bill now goes to the House.
  • U.S. Senate Democrats oppose a possible one-week emergency spending bill idea being floated.
  • Apple voted this year’s Best Global Brand, ending Coca Cola’s 13 year reign as No. 1.
  • Mortgage Bonds now at session lows. Stocks underwater.
  • German engineering giant Siemens, will cut up to 15,000 jobs worldwide of its 370,000 global employees.
  • The 4% coupon trades in a tight range.
  • Chicago PMI comes in better than expectations at 55.7 vs. the 53.7 expected.
  • Oil at $101.51/barrel down $1.36. Prices at the pump continue to drop as the national average for a regular gallon of gasoline is $3.39, down from $3.47 a week ago.
  • The only economic data point today is the Chicago PMI but that will take a backseat to the news out of Washington today.
  • Bonds trading higher as a threat of government shutdown at midnight tonight looms. Stock futures plunging.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – End of Day Summary – September 30, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans:

If no deal is reached today, the U.S. government is set to shutdown at midnight tonight for the first time since 1996. The Senate passed a vote last week and when it went to the House, it was rejected. The House then put together a continuing resolution that delays certain key parts of Obamacare for a year, which will most likely be voted down by the Senate.

The looming shutdown could also affect loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Authority (FHA), the Veteran’s Administration and the rural development loans of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. If there are pending applications for FHA insured loans, they will not be processed until after the shutdown ends.

Oil prices continue to decline today as the risk of a Syrian attack becomes a distant memory. The price for West Texas Intermediate oil is at $101.78/barrel down from a high of $112.24/barrel on August 28. The drop in oil prices has led prices at the gas pumps lower. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is at $3.39, down from $3.47 a week ago. The drop in gas prices can also be attributed to the end of the summer driving season, or less demand, and as refineries switch to cheaper blends of gasoline in the winter months as clean-air rules are relaxed.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – Morning Update – September 30, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates:

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, but not nearly as well as expected. The stock markets are reacting to the weekend news as they should, with sizable losses. The Dow is currently down 138 points while the Nasdaq has lost 28 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly if comparing to Friday’s morning levels.

Today has no relevant economic data scheduled for release, leaving the markets to the mercy of news of any progress (or lack of) out of Washington D.C. regarding the likely government shutdown this evening. The rest of the week has three monthly or quarterly economic reports set for release, including two very important releases. However, the government shutdown threatens the release of two of them since the agencies that compile the data and post the reports will be shuttered.

At this time, it appears that a deal to avoid a shutdown is not going to happen. This means that many government operations will come to a halt at midnight ET this evening. While that is a problem outside the mortgage world, it also should be noted that there are some specific problems to mortgage shoppers. As of tomorrow, most government mortgage loans (FHA/USDA) would come to a standstill but VA loans should not be affected unless the shutdown turns into an extended period. All conventional loans should proceed without issue. And it is my understanding that the National Flood Insurance Program will not be affected by a temporary shutdown either.

Tomorrow brings us the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for September at 10:00 AM ET. The ISM is not a governmental agency, so the shutdown will not impact this release. The index measures manufacturer sentiment and it can be highly influential on the markets and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a small decline from August’s 55.7 reading, meaning surveyed manufacturers felt business conditions worsened from the previous month. The 50.0 benchmark is extremely important since a reading below that level means more surveyed executives felt business worsened in the month than those who said it had improved. This data is important not only because it measures manufacturer sentiment, but it is also very recent data. Some economic releases track data that is 30-60 days old, but the ISM index is only a few weeks old. Actually, it is the first report that we see each month. If it reveals a reading below 55.0, meaning senti! ment fell short of expectations, we should by theory see the bond market move higher and mortgage rates fall tomorrow.

Overall, I am still expecting to see a good amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage rates this week despite the calm open in the bond market today. Based on an economic calendar, tomorrow and Friday are the key days but the impasse in Washington puts into question whether we will even see the data later in the week let alone if it will be the biggest influence on this week’s trading. Tomorrow will be a key day with the ISM index, regardless of the outcome in Washington. The rest of the week’s data is in limbo, so it is difficult to make a prediction beyond that point.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – Bits and Pieces of Good News

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans -Commentary ~ September 27, 2013

This week’s indicators provide gentle hints of the economy’s condition. It’s important, one guesses, not to read too much into these numbers—yet, taken as a whole, they seem to push us forward on the optimism scale.

Noting that the prices of both gold and crude oil have risen slightly, but seem to be holding to their current levels, perhaps we can conclude that the seemingly usual worries about the euro and Middle Eastern political crises may not be roiling world currency markets very much—at least, for the moment. The slight downward movement of the U.S. dollar against the currencies we watch regularly suggests that, indeed, the investors of the world aren’t currently piling their own currencies into dollar-denominated investments. It seems the world is less inclined to worry that a currency emergency could erupt at any moment.

So it’s back to normal, at the moment—assuming anyone out there still recalls what “normal” looks and feels like. Nonetheless, we see a slight inclination among American interest rates to rise. And this is worthy of comment.

Pundits in our nation claim that higher interest rates are likely to cause a significant slowing in our real estate market and, further, that we have already begun to see the early indications of the slowing. It is very important—but difficult—to recognize what is really happening. There is a slowing of the advance of prices and sales volume. But there is not an actual decrease in prices and sales themselves. The numbers remain strong, and are moving in a positive direction. Just a bit more slowly.

As Freddie Mac’s chief economist Frank Nothaft explains, we’re transitioning into the next phase of the recovery, one that is less dependent on distress sales and all-cash transactions, and made up of a greater number of “normal” down payment and financing transactions…the basic stuff of a market that is recovering at the entry- and early-move-up-levels. A slower market with fewer all-cash buyers is precisely what is needed to support the “ladder recovery” that allows those at the bottom of the entry level to participate in—and gradually strengthen—the recovery.

Instead of being harbingers of a depleted recovery, these signs that the speed of the recovery is slowing a bit—along with the subtle signs that worries may be less of a factor in the real estate recovery—should be welcome. Case-Shiller, after all, shows prices continuing to rise (though not as quickly as in the recent frenzy of price hikes). New Home sales are faring better. And applications for new mortgages are looking quite good.

Here’s an unusual idea. Let’s celebrate!

Incline Village Home Loans and Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates – September 25, 2013

Incline Village Home Loans, Incline Village Home Loan Rates, Incline Village Mortgage Loans, Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates, and Incline Village Mortgage Rates:

Today’s mortgage backed securities market was affected by the following factors:

  • JPMorgan in talks to pay up to $11B to settle Mortgage Backed Securities probes.
  • MBS hit session highs as Bonds are back in vogue.
  • FHA likely to exhaust reserves, to tap Treasury.
  • The $35B 5-yr note auction garners a “C+” rating.
  • The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline at the pump is $3.46 and has fallen for 23 straight days. It is expected to drop another 20 – 25 cents in the next few weeks as demand eases.
  • The House could vote on the debt limit increase as early as this Friday, but no word yet from Republican leaders on whether conditions would be attached.
  • New Home Sales rise nearly 8% from July to August to an annual rate of 421K, above the 416K expected.
  • JPMorgan offers $3B to end mortgage probes.
  • Treasury Secretary Lew says results could be catastrophic if U.S. government becomes unable to pay its bills.
  • Durable Orders rise by 0.1% in August, below the 0.5% expected. July revised to -8.1% from -7.4%.
  • Oil at $103.70/barrel up 57 cents.
  • Mortgage applications rose by 5.5% in the latest week as interest rates fell. The refinance index increased by 5% while the purchase index was up 7%.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – End of Day Summary – September 25, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates:

The housing sector received some good news today as New Home Sales rose by nearly 8% in August, despite the recent rise in home loan rates. Sales came in at an annual rate of 421,000, above the 415,000 expected and up from the 390,000 recorded in July. The median sales price fell to $254,600 in August from $257,200 in July.

Orders for products lasting at least three years rose modestly in September signaling decent growth in manufacturing output. Durable Orders rose by 0.1% in August, below the 0.5% expected led by a rise in the demand for autos, trucks and machinery offset by a decline in defense aircraft and military hardware.

The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline at the pump  is $3.46 and has fallen for 23 straight days. It is expected to drop  another 20 – 25 cents in the next few weeks as demand eases after the  summer driving season ends. Tom Kloza from GasBuddy.com says record high refining, declining oil prices and easing consumer demand the reasons behind the drop.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – Morning Summary – September 25, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans:

Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat despite favorable economic data and an uneventful open in stocks. The major stock indexes are nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, as is the bond market. We will still likely see a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates, but that is due to strength in trading late yesterday and not a result of this morning’s economic news.

The Commerce Department announced early this morning that new orders for durable goods rose just 0.1% last month, falling short of the 0.5% that was expected. In addition, a secondary reading that tracks orders with larger transportation items excluded such as new airplanes, fell 0.1% when analysts were expecting to see a 0.9% increase. Also worth noting are somewhat sizable downward revisions to July’s readings. That news indicates the manufacturing sector was not as strong as many had thought, making the data favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, the variance in the overall reading wasn’t enough to cause much alarm because the data is known to be quite volatile from month to month. Unfortunately, that has prevented a strong opening in the bond market despite the fact that this was the week’s single most important economic release.

They also gave us today’s second piece of economic data with the release of August’s New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET. It revealed a 7.9% increase in sales of newly constructed homes last month that exceeded forecasts, hinting at strength in the new home portion of the housing sector. That technically makes the data bad news for mortgage rates, but since this report does not carry a high level of significance in the markets, its impact on today’s trading and mortgage pricing has been minimal.

The Treasury is selling 5-year Notes today and 7-year Notes tomorrow. These sales have the potential to influence broader bond trading and possibly mortgage rates, but they won’t be the cause of a significant move in pricing. At the most, a strong demand from investors will lead to a small improvement in rates while a weak demand could cause a minor upward revision to pricing. Results of today’s sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Tomorrow also has two pieces of economic data scheduled to be posted that may have an impact on mortgage rates. The first is the weekly unemployment update from the Labor Department at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to announce that 325,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 309,000. The larger the number of initial claims, the better the news it is for the bond and mortgage markets because rising claims indicates employment sector weakness. Although, there is little faith in this week’s numbers because of technical difficulties in the reporting process from Nevada and California over the past couple weeks. In other words, we really can’t rely on the numbers to accurately reflect a weekly snapshot of the employment sector. Therefore, I would be surprised if tomorrow’s release has any influence on mortgage rates.

The final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will also be posted early tomorrow morning. Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don’t see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. The GDP is important because it is the total sum of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is considered the best measurement of economic activity. It is expected to show a 0.1% upward revision from the previous estimate of a 2.5% increase in the GDP. It will take a fairly large revision for this data to move mortgage rates, but the lower the reading, the better the news it is for rates.

Incline Village Mortgage Rates and Incline Village Home Loan Rates – September 24, 2013

Incline Village Mortgage Rates, Incline Village Home Loan Rates, Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates, Incline Village Home Loans, and Incline Village Mortgage Loans:

Mortgage Interest Rates moved lower today. The following factors affected today’s bond market and mortgage rates:

The $33B 2-Year Note auction draws a “C+” rating.

The yield on the 10-yr T Note falls to 2.65% after hitting 3% on September 5.

Stocks turn positive after the President speaks diplomacy at the UN on the Mideast issues and as a rumor that there was a weak auction in Italy turned out to be just a rumor.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite falls to zero in September from the +14 reading in August.

President Obama says US prepared to use all elements of power, including military force, to secure US interests in the Mideast.

The Case Shiller 20-city Home Price Index in July rises by 12.4% from July 2012 and above the 12% expected.

Fed’s Dudley says he won’t rule out tapering this year, but it depends on the data, not by time.

Fed’s Dudley says debt ceiling issue is creating a cloud over the economy and could have a negative effect on the economy.

Oil at $103.25/barrel down 33 cents.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – End of Day Summary – September 24, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates:

Economic data was abundant this morning led by housing news and how consumers are holding up in this economy. Reports from Consumer Confidence and Case Shiller dominated the news wires. Over in the capital markets, both Stocks and Bonds are trading higher.

The Conference Board reported this morning that its Consumer Confidence Survey in September slipped to 79.7 from the 81.8 recorded in August and just below the 80.0 expected. The Conference Board said that the decrease in confidence is a result of concerns about the short-term outlook for both jobs and earnings, while expectations for future business conditions were little changed.

Over in housing, the Case Shiller 20-city Home Price index rose by 1.8% from June to July, the smallest increase since the March to April reading of 2.5%. Year-over-year, prices rose 12.4% from July 2012 to July 2013. A spokespersons from Case Shiller said that the rate of increases may have peaked due to the recent rise in mortgage rates.

Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – Morning Update – September 24, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans, Lake Tahoe Home Loan Rates, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loans, Lake Tahoe Mortgage Rates, and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates:

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness and favorable economic news. The major stock indexes are showing losses during early trading with the Dow down 56 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

The Conference Board gave us today’s only relevant economic data late this morning with the release of September’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). They announced a reading of 79.7 that was just shy of the 80.0 that was forecasted. This means that surveyed consumers were just a little less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than analysts thought. That makes the data good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, particularly so because it was a decline from August’s reading. Waning confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future, helping to limit economic growth.

Tomorrow morning has two pieces of economic data that may influence mortgage rates. The first is August’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Big-ticket products are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and appliances. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.5% in new orders, indicating minor growth in the manufacturing sector. A sizable decline could help boost bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop tomorrow because signs of economic weakness make longer-term securities more appealing to investors. However, a sizable increase would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector and would likely help push mortgage rates higher. It is worth noting that this data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so a slight or moderate change may not affect mortgage pricing.

August’s New Home Sales will be released late tomorrow morning. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales of newly constructed homes rose last month, indicating housing sector strength. This report will likely not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates unless its readings differ greatly from forecasts. This is the week’s least important report in terms of potential impact on mortgage rates, partly because it covers only the small portion of all homes sales that last week’s Existing Home Sales report did not.

Also tomorrow is the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that can affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will sell 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes Thursday, which will tell us if there is an appetite for medium-term securities. If investor demand in these sales is strong, particularly from international buyers, the broader bond market should move higher, pushing mortgage rates lower. But a lackluster interest from investors could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. The results of the sales will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction to the results will come during afternoon trading tomorrow and Thursday.