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Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – End of Day Summary – August 30, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates:

Inflation remained tame in July as evidenced by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, which measures prices paid by consumers for goods and services, rising by 0.1%, inline with expectations and down from the 0.2% registered in JUne. Inflation has been running low and below the Federal Reserve’s target levels.

Americans across the nation were more upbeat about current economic conditions at the end of August than they were in the beginning of the month. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 82.1 from 80.0, but below the 6-year high of 85.1 registered at the end of July.

There has been no decision made as to an airstrike on Syria by the US as the Israelis and the UK governments have said they will not intervene just yet. However, Israel did say that if Syria attacks the country, it will respond severely.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – The Quandary of New Home Sales

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Home Loans – Commentary ~ August 30, 2013

 How can we possibly explain that the number of existing homes selling in July increased by a strong 6.5%, whereas the sales of newly-constructed homes fell from 455,000 to 394,000 when compared to June?

 “There was no advance indication for the degree of weakness in this report especially given accelerating recovery highs in the home builders’ housing market index,” note the editors at Bloomberg.com. The pundits suggested that rising mortgage rates may have slowed the sales of new homes, but this seems a dubious response since many of those same pundits had suggested the higher rates actually caused the spike in existing home sales, as buyers sought to grab relatively low rates before they rose higher.

 Pundits also suggested that new home sales were depressed a bit this last month by heavy rains, which cut into construction of homes and dampened new homebuyers’ enthusiasm for touring the new homes in their area.

 Few of the headline explanations, in any case, are particularly satisfying. Bloomberg.com noted the oddity that the NAHB Housing Market Index had just risen to 59, a 3-point leap to the strongest reading since 2005. How can we reconcile these apparently contradictory facts? It turns out that it’s not as hard as it seems at first.

 For one thing, the Federal Reserve’s announcement a couple of months back regarding the likelihood that it would start “tapering” its huge purchases of mortgage-backed bonds has created tremendous worry among investors as to whether interest rates will soon rise. When world investors fear that interest rates may rise, they nearly always rise…immediately. And that is what has happened. Thus, the claim that higher rates may have played a part in sales data most likely has truth to it.

 Further, the new home sales are computed—somewhat like the Pending Home Sales Index, which just fell, too—based on newly-signed contracts, not on completed sales. The new home data, therefore, often provides meaningful clues about what we’ll see in existing home data next month.

 There’s much more to consider, and we doubtless will in future weeks. But keep in mind, too, that new home data collection has generally proven to be a much more volatile process than have existing home sales computations. Further examination suggests that the data before us are not bad, should have been expected, and will smooth out a great deal in the future. That’s not guaranteed, but it’s better than what we saw at first glance. So we’ll keep looking.

Incline Village Mortgage Rates and Incline Village Home Loans – The Quandary of New Home Sales

Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates and Incline Village Home Loans – Commentary ~ August 30, 2013

 How can we possibly explain that the number of existing homes selling in July increased by a strong 6.5%, whereas the sales of newly-constructed homes fell from 455,000 to 394,000 when compared to June?

 “There was no advance indication for the degree of weakness in this report especially given accelerating recovery highs in the home builders’ housing market index,” note the editors at Bloomberg.com. The pundits suggested that rising mortgage rates may have slowed the sales of new homes, but this seems a dubious response since many of those same pundits had suggested the higher rates actually caused the spike in existing home sales, as buyers sought to grab relatively low rates before they rose higher.

 Pundits also suggested that new home sales were depressed a bit this last month by heavy rains, which cut into construction of homes and dampened new homebuyers’ enthusiasm for touring the new homes in their area.

 Few of the headline explanations, in any case, are particularly satisfying. Bloomberg.com noted the oddity that the NAHB Housing Market Index had just risen to 59, a 3-point leap to the strongest reading since 2005. How can we reconcile these apparently contradictory facts? It turns out that it’s not as hard as it seems at first.

 For one thing, the Federal Reserve’s announcement a couple of months back regarding the likelihood that it would start “tapering” its huge purchases of mortgage-backed bonds has created tremendous worry among investors as to whether interest rates will soon rise. When world investors fear that interest rates may rise, they nearly always rise…immediately. And that is what has happened. Thus, the claim that higher rates may have played a part in sales data most likely has truth to it.

 Further, the new home sales are computed—somewhat like the Pending Home Sales Index, which just fell, too—based on newly-signed contracts, not on completed sales. The new home data, therefore, often provides meaningful clues about what we’ll see in existing home data next month.

 There’s much more to consider, and we doubtless will in future weeks. But keep in mind, too, that new home data collection has generally proven to be a much more volatile process than have existing home sales computations. Further examination suggests that the data before us are not bad, should have been expected, and will smooth out a great deal in the future. That’s not guaranteed, but it’s better than what we saw at first glance. So we’ll keep looking.

Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates and Incline Village Home Loans – Morning Update – August 30, 2013

 Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates and Incline Village Home Loans:

“Today marks the unofficial last trading day of the Summer as the end of the month comes to a close.

Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged on tame inflation numbers and a decline in Personal Incomes and Spending.

The month has not been too kind to Stocks. The S&P 500 has fallen 2.7% for the month and down 4.1% since the all-time closing high of 1,709 hit on August 2. The talk of tapering and profit taking the catalysts behind the move lower.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Home Loans – Morning Update – August 30, 2013

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Home Loans:

Friday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with this morning’s economic data giving us mixed results. The stock markets are showing minor losses during early trading with the Dow down 31 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday’s closing level, but we should still see an improvement of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday.

Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction went better than Wednesday’s 5-year Note sales did, but was still not very impressive. Many of the benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed average interest at best. Fortunately, the news didn’t have too much of an impact on the broader bond market as bond prices improved from their morning levels, causing some lenders to improve their rates later in the day.

The first of this morning’s two economic releases was July’s Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed a 0.1% increase in personal income last month while spending rose by the same. The income reading matched forecasts however, the spending reading was weaker than many had expected (0.3%). That makes the data good news for the bond and mortgage markets because slower than expected consumer spending means the economy likely will not grow as much as predicted. Since consumer spending makes up about 70% of our economy, any data related to it is watched fairly closely.

Late this morning, the University of Michigan announced that their Index of Consumer Sentiment for August actually stood at 82.1. This was an upward revision to the preliminary reading of 80.0 that was posted earlier this month and exceeded forecasts of little change. That means that surveyed consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. And since rising confidence usually means consumers are more apt to make a large purchase in the immediate future, we should consider this data negative for mortgage rates.

Next week brings us the release of some key economic data including the ISM manufacturing index and the almighty Employment report that could easily influence the Fed’s tapering decision at their next FOMC meeting later in the month. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning for regular trading. There is no early close for stocks or bonds today, but it would not be surprising to see volume lighten up as many traders head home for the long weekend.

 

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – End of Day Summary – August 29, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates:

Positive economic data hit the wires this morning after several weeks of sub-par reports. The news is buoying Stocks in and capping Bond prices. With the holiday weekend looming, most of the heavy hitters will begin to close shop and head out today for an extended vacation.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that the second reading on Q2 Gross Domestic Product rose by 2.5%, up from the initial reading of 1.7%. The government cited a surge in exports as the main reason for the jump in growth. The estimates were calling for a 2.1% rise.

Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits continue to hover near 6-year lows. The Labor Department reported that Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell by 6,000 in the latest week to 331,000, inline with estimates. Despite the low levels of claims, hiring continues to be at just a modest pace.

Over in the foreclosure front, CoreLogic reported that completed foreclosures plunged by 25% from July 2012 to July 2013. CoreLogic said that every state reported year-over-year declines in foreclosures while delinquencies fell to the lowest levels since December 2008.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Home Loans – Morning Update – August 29, 2013

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Home Loans:

Thursday’s bond market initially opened well in negative territory but has since recovered most of those earlier losses. Unfavorable economic news caused the early selling and we have since seen a slow steady improvement. The stock markets are reacting favorable to the data with the Dow up 69 points and the Nasdaq up 37 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which with weakness late yesterday will still likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point. However, right after the data was released early this morning, it looked like it was going to be an ugly morning.

Yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note auction did not go well at all. Most of the indicators that we use to measure investor interest in the sale showed very weak demand. It led to a little pressure in bonds during afternoon trading yesterday, but it wasn’t enough to cause across the board increases from mortgage lenders. Unfortunately, that gives us little to be optimistic about in today’s 7-year Note auction. These securities are closer in term to mortgage-related bonds than yesterday’s 5-year Notes, so this sale could be a bit more influential to mortgage rates. A strong investor demand could help boost the broader bond market after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET, leading to a slight improvement in mortgage pricing.

Neither of this morning’s economic releases gave us results that were positive for the bond market or mortgage rates. The Labor Department said early this morning that 331,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was down from the previous week’s revised 337,000 and close to forecasts, indicating that the employment sector strengthened last week. However, this was nearly a match to forecasts in low-importance report, so its impact on this morning’s pricing has been minimal.

The big news came in the revised 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the economy actually grew at a 2.5% annual pace from April through June. This higher than the 2.1% that was expected and much higher than the preliminary estimate of 1.7% that was posted last month. Since long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, the fact that the economy was much stronger last quarter than many had thought makes the data negative for the bond market and mortgage shoppers. Fortunately, the bond market appears willing forgive the news, at least at the moment.

Tomorrow morning has two pieces of relevant economic data scheduled for release and it is the last trading before the holiday weekend. July’s Personal Income and Outlays report is the first at 8:30 AM ET. This data will give us a measure of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Rising income means consumers have more money to spend. It is expected to show an increase of 0.1% in income and a 0.3% increase in spending. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, weaker than expected numbers would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

The second report of the morning will be the University of Michigan’s revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for August. This sentiment index helps us track consumer willingness to spend and is similar to this past Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index. It is expected to show no change from August’s preliminary reading of 80.0. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their personal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – End of Day Summary – August 28, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates and Incline Village Home Loans:

The housing sector took another hit this morning and comes after last Friday’s weak numbers from New Home sales. The National Association of Realtors reported that Pending Home Sales in July fell by 1.3% due in part to the rise in home loan rates and seasonal factors. However, sales are up 6.7% from last year this time. Pending Home Sales are signed contracts that have not yet closed.

The recent rise in home loan rates have also put a crimp in mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume, fell by 2.5% in the latest week. The refinance index continues to decline down 5.4%. However, the purchase index was up 2%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is seeking $6 billion from banking giant JPMorgan Chase over sour subprime mortgages that were sent to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and subsequently packaged and sold to investors. The FHFA is arguing that the underlying mortgages did not meet investors criteria and as the borrowers fell behind on their mortgage payments, the price of the Bonds fell rapidly. The mortgages were originally sold by Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns, which were taken over by JPMorgan with the government’s encouragement.

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Home Loans – Morning Update -August 28, 2013

Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates and Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Incline Village Mortgage Loan Rates and Incline Village Home Loans:

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with no relevant economic data scheduled for release to continue this week’s rally. The stock markets are showing relatively minor gains with the Dow up 43 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point. Helping to prevent a larger increase is strength in bonds late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, but we do have the first of two Treasury auctions that could affect bond trading and mortgage rates. Today’s auction has 5-year Treasury Notes being sold while 7-year Notes will be auctioned tomorrow. Results of each sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. If investor interest was strong, we may see the broader bond market to rally, possibly improving mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates this afternoon.

We should also be looking for a sizable stock move or major news on the Syria situation to also cause an afternoon change to mortgage rates. If stocks remain near current levels, mortgage rates should follow suit if the Treasury auction shows average demand levels and nothing new breaks on Syria. If stocks continue to move higher, we will probably see bonds pressured and mortgage rates move a little higher later today.

Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release that have the potential to influence mortgage pricing. The first will be the Labor Department’s weekly unemployment at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show that 330,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week’s 336,000. The higher the number of initial claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates because rising claims indicates a weakening employment sector.

The other report is the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. This reading is the second of three that we see each quarter. Last month’s preliminary reading revealed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.7%. Tomorrow’s revision is expected to show that the GDP actually rose 2.1%, meaning the economy was stronger than thought from April through June. A smaller than expected reading should help lower mortgage rates, especially if the inflation portion of the release does not get revised higher. There will be a final revision issued next month, but it probably will have little impact on mortgage rates since traders will be more interested in the current quarter’s activity.

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates – End of Day Summary – August 27, 2013

Lake Tahoe Home Loans and Lake Tahoe Mortgage Loan Rates:

The tensions in Syria are pushing Stock prices lower today and is shifting investing dollars over into the Bonds markets. U.S. allies are readying plans for an air strike against the nation after 100,000 people have died and 1 million children have become refugees.

Over in the housing sector, the Case Shiller Home Price 20-city Index rose by 12.1% in the year ended in June, just below the 12.2% registered in May. From May to June there was a 2.2% increase, but that is down from the 2.5% recorded from April to May. The report signals that the housing recovery continues, but at a slower pace.

Consumers remained optimistic in August despite the growing debt ceiling woes and as the fed readies to ease back on stimulating the U.S. economy. The Conference Board reported this morning that the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 81.5 in August from the 81.0 recorded in July. A spokesperson for the Conference Board said consumers were moderately more upbeat about business, job and earnings prospects.